CSO - Central Statistics Office Ireland

04/29/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 04/29/2024 04:04

Preliminary GDP Estimate Quarter 1 2024

Early estimates indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 1.1% in Quarter 1 2024

CSO statistical publication, 29 April 2024, 11am

A CSO Frontier Series Output

This publication is categorised as a CSO Frontier Series Output. Particular care must be taken when interpreting the statistics in this release as it may use new methods which are under development and/or data sources which may be incomplete, for example new administrative data sources.

Key Findings

  • Early estimates indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has risen by an estimated 1.1% in Quarter 1 (Q1) 2024, when compared with Q4 2023.

  • The result was driven mainly by an increase in the Information & Communication sector in Q1 2024.

  • Using the early estimate for Q1 2024, GDP is estimated to have decreased by 0.8% when compared with the same quarter in 2023.

Statistician's Comment

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (29 April 2024) published its latest Preliminary GDP Estimate for Quarter 1 (Q1) 2024. This is a Frontier Series publication and care must be taken when interpreting these results as methodologies may change and data sources may be incomplete.

These preliminary results are subject to revisions in the Quarterly National Accounts, which will be published with results for Q1 2024 in early June when additional data sources are available to the CSO and will be further updated following the release of the Annual National Accounts for 2023.

Commenting on the release, Enda Behan, Statistician in the National Accounts Data Collection and Quality Division, said: "In today's release, GDP is estimated to have expanded by 1.1% in Q1 2024 in volume terms when compared with Q4 2023. This was driven by an increase in the multinational dominated sector of Information & Communication in Q1 2024. GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.8% when compared with the same quarter of 2023.

The preliminary GDP estimates are based on forecasting and data sources that are limited in scope when compared with those used for compiling GDP in the CSO's Quarterly National Accounts. The data sources include information from the CSO Large Cases Unit, Retail Sales, Administrative Payroll Data, and other indicators of activity (See Background Notes for more details on these estimates and the methodology used to calculate the preliminary results)."

Quarter-on-quarter percentage change

The preliminary GDP estimate shows a seasonally adjusted increase of 1.1% in Q1 2024 in volume terms when compared with Q4 2023.

null
Created with Highcharts 9.3.3Chart context menuSource: CSO IrelandQ1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Q1 2024Highcharts.comFigure 1 Seasonally Adjusted Growth Rate of GDP (% change over previous quarter)
Qtr on Qtr
-1001020
percent
Qtr on Qtr
Q1 2020 2.4758325883
Q2 2020 -5.412632895
Q3 2020 12.220784634
Q4 2020 -4.151661938
Q1 2021 9.9192463942
Q2 2021 2.8935780352
Q3 2021 2.9484695214
Q4 2021 -1.727340261
Q1 2022 4.8463687757
Q2 2022 2.7553298809
Q3 2022 2.9805854585
Q4 2022 0.1749720618
Q1 2023 -3.360628275
Q2 2023 -0.133927962
Q3 2023 -2.500291567
Q4 2023 -3.419111912
Q1 2024 1.0883223331
Table 1 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2021) - Seasonally Adjusted
Table 1 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2021) - Seasonally Adjusted
Period GDP at Constant Market Prices €million GDP at Constant Market Prices % change on previous quarter
2020
Q1 93,928 2.5
Q2 88,844 -5.4
Q3 99,701 12.2
Q4 95,562 -4.2
2021
Q1 105,041 9.9
Q2 108,081 2.9
Q3 111,267 2.9
Q4 109,345 -1.7
2022
Q1 114,645 4.8
Q3 117,803 2.8
Q2 121,315 3.0
Q4 121,527 0.2
2023
Q1 117,443 -3.4
Q2 117,286 -0.1
Q3 114,353 -2.5
Q4 110,443 -3.4
2024
Q11 111,645 1.1
1This is an early GDP Estimate at T+30 days

Year-on-year percentage change

In Q1 2024, GDP is estimated to have decreased by 0.8% relative to Q1 2023.

null
Created with Highcharts 9.3.3Chart context menuSource: CSO IrelandQ1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Q1 2024Highcharts.comFigure 2 Non-Seasonally Adjusted year-on-year Growth Rate of GDP (% change over same quarter in previous year)
Year on Year
-20-100102030
percent
Year on Year
Q1 2020 8.3448047774
Q2 2020 1.9789373028
Q3 2020 11.349108884
Q4 2020 4.6438009809
Q1 2021 12.763524135
Q2 2021 21.723856879
Q3 2021 12.381932109
Q4 2021 14.294399664
Q1 2022 8.784246785
Q2 2022 9.2951712208
Q3 2022 9.3668932258
Q4 2022 10.238017214
Q1 2023 2.7073516848
Q2 2023 -0.334125105
Q3 2023 -5.804116275
Q4 2023 -8.670323743
Q1 2024 -0.758915421
Table 2 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2021) - Non-Seasonally Adjusted
Table 2 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2021) - Non-Seasonally Adjusted
Period GDP at Constant Market Prices €million GDP at Constant Market Prices % change on corresponding period of previous year
2020 377,041 6.6
2021 434,070 15.1
2022 475,016 9.4
2023 459,821 -3.2
2020
Q1 91,174 8.3
Q2 87,211 2.0
Q3 102,015 11.3
Q4 96,642 4.6
2021
Q1 102,811 12.8
Q2 106,156 21.7
Q3 114,646 12.4
Q4 110,456 14.3
2022
Q1 111,842 8.8
Q3 116,024 9.3
Q2 125,385 9.4
Q4 121,765 10.2
2023
Q1 114,870 2.7
Q2 115,636 -0.3
Q3 118,108 -5.8
Q4 111,207 -8.7
2024
Q11 113,998 -0.8
1This is an early GDP Estimate at T+30 days