04/19/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 04/19/2024 10:20
Running tab of macro indicators: 8 out of 20
The number of new jobless claims was unchanged at 212,000 during the week ending 13 April. Continuing claims increased by 2,000 to 1.812 million, and the insured unemployment rate for the week ending 6 April was unchanged at 1.2%.
Following an upwardly revised 0.9% rebound in February, retail sales rose 0.7% in March, again exceeding expectations. Excluding sales at motor vehicle & parts dealers (which declined), retail sales rose 1.1%, the highest monthly gain in more than a year. Sales of online platforms surged 2.7% and there were also gains in sales at general merchandise stores, building material dealers & garden centers, gas stations and restaurants & bars. These gains more than offset lower sales at electronic and appliance stores, clothing & accessories stores, sporting goods & hobby stores, and furniture & furnishings stores. Compared to a year ago, retail sales were up 4.0% Y/Y.
Existing home sales fell 4.3% in March to a 4.19 million annual pace and were off 3.7% Y/Y. Housing inventories rose 4.7% from February levels and now represent a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace. While higher than the 2.9-month supply in February and the 2.7-month supply a year ago, inventories remain at historically lean levels. The median sales price was up 4.8% Y/Y to $393,500, the ninth consecutive month of Y/Y gains and the highest ever price ever for March.
Housing starts and building permits declined sharply in March. Starts fell to a 1.321-million-unit pace, which was down 14.7% M/M and down 4.3% Y/Y. There were steep drops in both single and multi-family starts in March. Starts were down in all regions except the West. Building permits were at a 1.458-million-unit pace, which was down 4.3% M/M but up 1.5% Y/Y. Permits for single family homes fell 5.7% M/M but were up 17.4% Y/Y. Permits declined in all regions except the West where there was a gain in permits in multi-family.
Following four months of gains, NAHB's homebuilder sentiment measure was flat in April. At 51, the index remained ahead of the neutral mark, indicating slightly positive sentiment toward the market for newly built single-family homes. With mortgage rates back near 7% and prospects for a near-term interest rate cut fading, the higher cost of borrowing is weighing on prospective homebuyers.
Combined business inventories rose 0.4% in February, following flat growth in January. Inventories rose across manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. Inventory investment contributes to the calculation of GDP. Sales also rose in all three major segments of the supply chain with a gain of 1.6%. Compared to a year ago, both sales and inventories were up 1.0% Y/Y. The inventories-to-sales ratio edged lower from 1.39 in January to 1.38 in February. A year ago, the ratio was 1.37.
Industrial production rose for a second month in March, up by 0.4%, led by higher manufacturing output. Within manufacturing, output was mixed. The largest M/M percentage gains were in refining, motor vehicles & parts, printing, and aerospace. The largest M/M declines were in nonmetallic mineral products, apparel & leather, textiles, and furniture. Compared to a year ago, overall industrial production was flat while manufacturing output was up 0.8% Y/Y. Capacity utilization tightened by 0.2 percentage points to 78.4%, still below the 79.5% rate in March 2023. Over the past year, overall industrial capacity grew by 1.4%.
Following the first gain in two years in February, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.3% in March. Over the past six months, the LEI was off by 2.2%, though the pace of contraction has slowed. The decline in March was driven by negative contributions from the yield spread, new building permits, consumers' outlook on business conditions, new orders, and initial unemployment insurance claims.
A compilation of anecdotal information on the regional economies in the 12 districts, the Beige Book is published eight times per year. Interesting excerpts follow here:
Oil prices eased a bit following Iran's attack on Israel last weekend. While the attack was largely fended off, Israel is considering retaliation, which could add to the geopolitical risk premium. Natural gas prices were also slightly lower. The combined oil and gas rig count fell by three to 615. Natural gas inventories rose by 50 BCF and were 36.4% above the five-year average.
Indicators for the business of chemistry bring to mind a yellow banner.
According to data released by the Association of American Railroads, chemical railcar loadings were up to 32,323 for the week ending April 13. Loadings were up 1.4% Y/Y (13-week MA), up (4.3%) YTD/YTD and have been on the rise for seven of the last 13 weeks.
Following a 2.4% rebound in February, chemical production declined 0.6% in March. Output was higher for organic chemicals, inorganic chemicals, synthetic rubber, and manufactured fibers. Those gains were more than offset by lower production of plastic resins, coatings, other specialty chemicals, fertilizers, crop protection chemicals and consumer products. Despite the sequential decline, chemical production was up 0.3% from a year ago, the second positive Y/Y comparison in the past 17 months.
Chemical capacity utilization eased by 0.5 percentage points to 79.1% in March. This was down from 79.4% in March 2023. Over the past year, chemical capacity was 0.7% higher.
Banner colors reflect an assessment of the current conditions in the overall economy and the business chemistry of chemistry. For the overall economy we keep a running tab of 20 indicators. The banner color for the macroeconomic section is determined as follows:
Green - 13 or more positives
Yellow - between 8 and 12 positives
Red - 7 or fewer positives
There are fewer indicators available for the chemical industry. Our assessment on banner color largely relies upon how chemical industry production has changed over the most recent three months.
ACC members can access additional data, economic analyses, presentations, outlooks, and weekly economic updates through ACCexchange.
In addition to this weekly report, ACC offers numerous other economic data that cover worldwide production, trade, shipments, inventories, price indices, energy, employment, investment, R&D, EH&S, financial performance measures, macroeconomic data, plus much more. To order, visit http://store.americanchemistry.com/.
Every effort has been made in the preparation of this weekly report to provide the best available information and analysis. However, neither the American Chemistry Council, nor any of its employees, agents or other assigns makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any liability or responsibility for any use, or the results of such use, of any information or data disclosed in this material.
Contact us at [email protected].
The American Chemistry Council's mission is to advocate for the people, policy, and products of chemistry that make the United States the global leader in innovation and manufacturing. To achieve this, we: Champion science-based policy solutions across all levels of government; Drive continuous performance improvement to protect employees and communities through Responsible Care®; Foster the development of sustainability practices throughout ACC member companies; and Communicate authentically with communities about challenges and solutions for a safer, healthier and more sustainable way of life. Our vision is a world made better by chemistry, where people live happier, healthier, and more prosperous lives, safely and sustainably-for generations to come.