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09/21/2021 | News release | Distributed by Public on 09/21/2021 16:27

US-Iran breakthrough unlikely at UN: Update

Updates with changes throughout

The UN General Assembly that kicked off today in New York brought together world leaders and senior diplomats involved in the effort to revive the Iran nuclear deal, but a breakthrough in the talks that would pave the way for lifting US oil sanctions appears remote.

Iran's foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian is scheduled to attend the session, a first for Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi's administration that took office last month.

European foreign ministers who plan to meet with Amir-Abdollahian on the sidelines of the General Assembly plan to urge him to resume participation in indirect talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal. But Iran's foreign ministry today said that Iran will return to talks "in the coming weeks" - an indeterminate timeline that has US and EU diplomats worried about a potential breakdown in negotiations.

"We are working with the P5+1 to engage Iran diplomatically and seek a return to the JCPOA," US president Joe Biden said in his address to the General Assembly, referring to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal and the US' partners in the Iran talks - the UK, France, China, Russia and Germany. "We are preparted to return to full compliance if Iran does the same," Biden said.

Raisi did not join the opening session, but he gave a virtual address in which he blasted the US for leaving the JCPOA in 2018 and for imposing sanctions that he said extracted a humanitarian toll on Iran, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic. "We do not trust the promises made by the US government," Raisi said.

The "promises" referenced by Raisi are among the sticking points that failed to be resolved during indirect US-Iran talks in Vienna held in April-June under the EU auspices and with mediation by the JCPOA members.

Iran is asking for guarantees that a future US president would not walk away from the resurrected agreement just like Biden's predecessor Donald Trump did. The Biden administration retorts that it is easier to revive the JCPOA deal in the form agreed to in 2015 and that converting it to a formal treaty would require a broader agreement that would address US concerns about Tehran's missile program and its regional activities.

The White House downplayed Raisi's remarks today and said the US remains keen on diplomacy with Iran. "As it relates to rhetoric from leadership, they have their own politics," the White House said.

Amir-Abdollahian is not scheduled to meet with US secretary of state Tony Blinken in New York, according to a senior US diplomat who said that any interaction interaction between the US and Iranian diplomats will be indirect.

Blinken is scheduled to meet his counterparts from France, Germany and the UK tomorrow to coordinate their Iran policy. Amir-Abdollahian is planning to hold meetings with EU foreign affairs commissioner Josep Borrell and the French and UK foreign ministers.

The JCPOA joint commission, which in previous years met on the sidelines of the General Assembly, is not scheduled to hold a meeting this time.

"I will meet the new foreign affairs minister of Iran, not as coordinator of the JCPOA, but as the high representative of the European Union," Borrell said. "And, certainly, during this meeting, as coordinator of the JCPOA, I will call on Iran to resume the talks in Vienna as soon as possible."

Just how long Raisi's government will take to return to negotiations is an open question. Oil market participants have watched the developments for clues on when at least 1.5mn b/d of Iranian oil might return to global markets.

European diplomats expected Iran to resume talks this month, but that did not happen, Borrell said. Prior to Tehran's message today of a possible resumption of talks "in the coming weeks," Amir-Abdollahian said it could take "two-three months" before that happens. Amir-Abdollahian has named senior conservative diplomat Ali Baqeri-Kani as his new deputy, replacing Abbas Araqchi who was involved in negotiating the Iran nuclear deal in 2015 and was the principal Iranian negotiator in talks to revive it earlier this year.

By Haik Gugarats