COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths

• The figures show the number of new (left) and total (right) COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from April 23 through June 25 and forecasted over the next 4 weeks, through July 23.
• This week, 18 modeling groups contributed a forecast that was eligible for inclusion in the new or total deaths ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction.
• Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details on the assumptions and methods used to produce the forecasts.

Download national forecast data [XLS - 14 KB]

State Forecasts

State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 deaths for the next 4 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states and only forecasts meeting a set of ensemble inclusion criteria are shown. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble/ . Plots of the state-level ensemble forecast and the underlying data can be downloaded below.

Download state forecasts [PDF - 1 MB]

Download forecast data [CSV - 477 KB]

Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hub .

Forecast Inclusion, Evaluation, and Assumptions

Forecasts are listed when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements and a subset are included in the ensemble. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble .

Ensemble and specific team forecast performance is evaluated using a variety of metrics, including the assessment of prediction interval coverage. This assessment is available at https://delphi.cmu.edu/forecast-eval/ .

The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Additional individual model details are available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.md. Details on the ensemble's accuracy in short-term predictions and its usefulness as a real-time tool to help guide policy and planning can be found here: Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

Intervention assumptions fall into multiple categories:

¹ The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.

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