08/10/2022 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 08/10/2022 07:34
Download national forecast data [XLS - 14 KB]
State Forecasts
State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 deaths for the next 4 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states and only forecasts meeting a set of ensemble inclusion criteria are shown. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble/ . Plots of the state-level ensemble forecast and the underlying data can be downloaded below.
Download state forecasts [PDF - 1 MB]
Download forecast data [CSV - 385 KB]
Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hub .
Forecast Inclusion, Evaluation, and Assumptions
Forecasts are listed when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements and a subset are included in the ensemble. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble .
Ensemble and specific team forecast performance is evaluated using a variety of metrics, including the assessment of prediction interval coverage. This assessment is available at https://delphi.cmu.edu/forecast-eval/ .
The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Additional individual model details are available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.md. Details on the ensemble's accuracy in short-term predictions and its usefulness as a real-time tool to help guide policy and planning can be found here: Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.
Intervention assumptions fall into multiple categories:
1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.