Saudi says on track for capacity above 13mn b/d by 2027

Saudi Arabia is on course to increase its oil production capacity to above 13mn b/d by early 2027, its energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Monday, with further progress targeted at the Neutral Zone it shares with neighbouring Kuwait.

"Of course we're going to [have our capacity] go to the 13.2 to 13.3 [mn b/d], depending on what we will do in the [neutral] zone… most likely 13.3-13.4 [mn b/d]," he said at an energy conference in Bahrain today, 16 May. "That will be attended to by the end of [20]26, early [20]27."

Data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi) indicate Saudi Arabia's highest self-reported production level was 12.007mn b/d in April 2020, when the dissolution of an Opec+ agreement pitted Riyadh and Russia in a fleeting battle for market share.

Spare capacity and capacity growth projects have been at the forefront of Opec+ conversations in recent months, as underinvestment and field maturity has prevented several coalition members from reaching their monthly production targets. Saudi Arabia and the UAE account for most of the remaining Opec capacity.

Much of Riyadh's planned capacity boost will come from assets operated by state-controlled Aramco, which will account for around 13mn b/d of the target. The remainder will come from 300,000 b/d offshore Khafji field and the 250,000 b/d onshore Wafra field in the Neutral Zone. Prince Abdulaziz today confirmed the immediate goal is restoring the Neutral Zone's capacity, before pressing ahead with increases.

"We're improving with our friends in Kuwait. We're trying to go back to old capacities, and with [Khafji operator] Chevron on steam flooding," he said. "The technologies… we're testing it, and retesting it make sure we can use the same technology. The aquifers are different in the divided zone."

"If that continues to improve, I think the [production] number will increase," he said. "To what level? I'd say give us a year or two, but again we're trying to maximise as much as the potential can allow."

Kuwait last year sketched out raising combined Neutral Zone capacity to 700,000 b/d by 2025.

By Ruxandra Iordache and Nader Itayim