Dry weather weighs on Brazil corn output

The lack of rain in several of Brazil's corn-producing areas has already prompted lower production estimates for the 2021-22 second corn crop. The next 30 days will be crucial for determining crop yields.

In Mato Grosso, the largest corn producing state in the country, the forecast for the second corn crop was revised downward to 39.34mn tonnes (t) from the 40.4mn t projected last month, according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). Another cut is expected next month, and the estimate may fall to 39mn t, Marcos da Rosa, the vice president of the Federation of Agriculture for Mato Grosso state, told Argus.

The second corn crop, Brazil's largest, is planted on the same land as the soy crop. Mato Grosso's farmers say that a portion of the second corn crop, also known as the winter crop, was planted outside of the ideal timeframe because heavy rains earlier in the year delayed the soybean harvest. Some of the crops planted later have been without rain for more than 20 days and so have already lost 50pc of their productivity, leading Imea to reduce expected output in the state. Damage by the leafhopper pest has led to further losses.

In Goias state, the situation is also deteriorating. The winter corn crop harvest was expected to reach 10mn t in 2021-22. But now that some regions have gone as long as 30 days without rain, expectations have dropped to 9mn t, according to Joel Ragagnin, president of the Association of Soy and Corn Producers for Goias state.

Some areas in Minas Gerais state, in the southeastern region of Brazil, also have suffered insufficient rainfall. Corn producer Wesley Barbosa de Freitas planted 4,000 hectares (ha) of corn in Minas Gerais, yet only a portion of those crops have received rain over the last 20 days. For this reason, he said he expects his yield to be 60 60kg bags/ha, compared to a historical average of 130 bags/ha.

The majority of damaged crops are in the grain filling phase of development. The next 30 days are crucial, because if the rains return, crops may recover part of the expected losses. But meteorologists consulted by Argus said that dry weather is expected to continue throughout most of the region of Minas Gerais amid issues of seasonality and the ongoing La Nina weather phenomenon.

In this scenario, AgResource consultancy recently predicted Brazil's second corn crop will produce 84.4mn t. National supply company (Conab) in early April estimated the crop at 88.5mn t.

In 2020-21, winter corn production totaled 60.7mn t because most of the Brazilian crop was planted outside of the ideal timeframe. Moreover, many regions suffered drought and frost during the season.

For this cycle, market participants have ruled out a similarly large loss, but they agreed that the lack of rain in the central-west region is likely to result in a harvest below initial forecasts of 90mn t.

Alessandra Mello