The Invasion of Rafah Looms

THE NEXT PHASE of the gruesome Mideast war is likely to begin with days. Peace talks between Israel and Hamas broke down over the weekend, and both sides now expect an invasion of Rafah, the teeming, tunnel-filled city that's within a few miles of the Egyptian border.

LIKE THE EARLIER PHASE, the war will be televised, with images of high civilian casualties. This will ratchet up protests in the West, including the U.S. President Joe Biden, who gets poor grades from the U.S. public for his handling of the war, has virtually begged Israel to hold off on an invasion, to no avail.

IF THIS NEW PHASE produces high civilian casualties, the damage to Biden and the Democrats will be immense. Even though college campuses are emptying out for the summer, there will be plenty of protests - the Democrats are dreading the Aug. 19-22 Democratic convention in Chicago, when thousands of protesters may threaten the party's shaky election prospects.

DESPITE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE PLEAS from the U.S., there's no sign that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will relent - even if it means a slowing of U.S. aid shipments to Israel, as rumored over the weekend.

THE ISRAELIS called this weekend for an evacuation of parts of Rafah, home to more that a million Palestinians. Netanyahu, under pressure from hard-liners in his cabinet, has called for an immediate evacuation, raising speculation that Israel's long-promised ground offensive may come within days.

AFTER EARLIER SIGNS OF PROGRESS, the outlook appeared to dim in recent days as Netanyahu vowed to resist international pressure to halt the war. Military analysts were quoted in the Wall Street Journal this morning as warning that an invasion of Rafah could be very difficult; the city is filled with tunnels and booby-traps.

FOUR HAMAS BATTALIONS remain in Rafah, along with thousands of other fighters who have fled from northern and central Gaza as the Israeli army plowed through the Gaza Strip. The likelihood of high casualties has prompted Netanyahu to lower expectations for a cease fire; he calls the Hamas demands "extreme."

HAMAS UNDOUBTEDLY IS UNDER PRESSURE FROM hard-liners in the region, headed by Iran, that are eager to scuttle talks because a breakdown would stall any progress on a Mideast peace pact that would include Saudi Arabia and Israel. A deal, incredibly, is still on the table - but a protracted and bloody new phase of this war would scuttle any deal.

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