Iraq's Shia power struggle risks spillover

A power struggle within Iraq's Shia constituency has escalated following 10 months of political deadlock, raising concerns over the stability of the country and its oil sector.

Supporters of the powerful Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr stormed Iraq's parliament in Baghdad on 31 July for a second time in a week, declaring their latest protest an open-ended sit-in and prompting counter demonstrations from the Coordination Framework, a pro-Iran Shia alliance. The Sadrists oppose the Coordination Framework's candidate for premier, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. Al-Sudani is an ally of former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, who is a longstanding Shia rival of al-Sadr.

The unfolding events led the speaker of parliament Mohammed al-Halbousi to suspend parliamentary sessions on 30 July "until further notice", signalling a protracted phase of turmoil. Al-Sadr has since called on all Iraqis to join the Sadrists to press for a "fundamental change in the political system", a plea likely to resonate with an Iraqi population tired of the elite that has ruled the country since US-led forces toppled Saddam Hussein two decades ago. The results of the October 2021 parliamentary elections saw pro-Iran Shia groups and militias lose their majority, providing al-Sadr with an opportunity to assert his own dominance in Iraqi politics.

The Sadrists and the Coordination Framework are both heavily armed but seem to want to avoid violence for now. Tensions are running high though. A leaked audio recording appears to feature al-Maliki insulting several senior Shia political figures, including al-Sadr, and threatening violence against his opponents, although al-Maliki denies it is him speaking. "The coming phase is that of fighting ... Iraq is approaching a brutal war from which no one will emerge unscathed unless we manage to stop Sadr, al-Halbousi and [Kurdistan Democratic Party leader] Masoud Barzani," the voice on the recording says.

Shia infighting in Iraq benefits Iran's rivals in so much as it risks having a profound impact on Tehran's influence over its neighbour. But a destabilised Iraq could also lead to unrest spilling over into other countries in the region. Furthermore, with much of Iraq's oil wealth located in predominantly Shia parts of the country, a disruption to crude supplies could be on the cards should the Shia power struggle turn violent, exacerbating an already tight oil market.

Protracted deadlock

Since last year's vote, Iraq has failed to install a president and form a new government. The elections resulted in a fragmented parliament with no clear-cut majority, forcing rival constituencies to seek consensus in order to rule. But al-Sadr has refused to return to a conventional "national unity" government. Although previously being part of such an administration, he regards national unity governments as a source of inertia that prevent the political system from evolving from what he regards as a corruption-riddled sectarian power-sharing arrangement. Instead, al-Sadr has pushed for a "national majority" government, a euphemism for one that excludes pro-Iran groups.

The Sadrist movement won the most seats in the elections - 74 seats in the 329-member Council of Representatives - and allied itself with the Sunni Taqaddum bloc, led by al-Halbousi, and Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party. But this was not enough to meet the two-thirds threshold required to form a government.

By Bachar Halabi