Record high milk production in October

GB milk production in October was an estimated 1,040 million litres, the highest October volume on record (records go back to 1998). It was also 4.0% (40m litres) above our forecast. Daily deliveries averaged 33.55 million litres per day, a 2.5% increase from September and a year-on-year increase of 3.0%.

Despite a season of reduced grass production, mainly a result of heatwaves over the summer months, the higher deliveries seen so far this autumn are likely due to favourable weather conditions. October 2022 had the highest UK October mean temperature since the mid 2000's. Paired with average rain fall, this has encouraged above-average autumn grass growth. Additionally, strong milk prices could have also encouraged production.

Although September and October production seem to have picked up, the potential to see yields drop again through the winter months is a risk as the impact of higher feed costs hit farmer margins. There is also a chance we could see higher rates of destocking in the coming months, which would further negatively impact total milk production. The September forecast predicted GB milk production would be down 0.8% year on year at the end of the season. However, this was before the recent uplift in production which will be accounted for in our December forecast update next month.