12/01/2021 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 12/01/2021 09:18
Reported and forecasted new and total COVID-19 deaths as of November 29, 2021.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
National Forecast
Download national forecast data excel icon [XLS - 16 KB]
State Forecasts
State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 deaths for the next 4 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states and only forecasts meeting a set of ensemble inclusion criteria are shown. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble/external icon . Plots of the state-level ensemble forecast and the underlying data can be downloaded below.
Download state forecasts pdf icon [PDF - 1 MB]
Download forecast data excel icon [CSV - 697 KB]
Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon .
Forecast Inclusion, Evaluation, and Assumptions
Forecasts are listed when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements and a subset are included in the ensemble. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensembleexternal icon .
Ensemble and individual team forecast performance is evaluated using a variety of metrics, including the assessment of prediction interval coverage, available at https://delphi.cmu.edu/forecast-eval/external icon .
The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Additional individual model details are available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.md.external icon Details on the ensemble's accuracy in short-term predictions and its usefulness as a real-time tool to help guide policy and planning can be found here: Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.external icon
Intervention assumptions fall into multiple categories:
1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.