Regions Financial Corporation

03/08/2021 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 03/08/2021 16:17

Current Report (SEC Filing - 8-K)

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Investor Information - Select Pages Update February - March 2021 Exhibit 99.1
• Rate environment impacts offset through active balance sheet management; trend likely to continue in near-term ◦ Higher avg. hedging notional; total benefit of $97M NII to 4Q(3) ◦ Lower deposit pricing; deposit cost = 8bps / interest-bearing deposit cost = 13bps ◦ Cash management strategy carryover from 3Q ◦ Premium amortization; market rate related impacts stable QoQ(4) • Loan balance declines mostly attributable to C&I and the strategic reduction of indirect loans, offset by strong mortgage growth (1) Core NIM excludes PPP and excess cash over $750M. (2) Other items include bond call benefits, loan prepayment penalties, and other product yield adjustments. (3) Most hedges remain active; $260M NII accrual FY 2020. (4) Total premium amort increased from $46M 3Q to $51M 4Q; increase driven by purchase of higher dollar price bonds; excluding this and GNMA buyouts = low $40M. 3.41% 3.40% Net interest income and net interest margin - Core Drivers Core(1) NIM Attribution Core Drivers of NIM and NII 1Q 2021 Expectations - Updated • Excluding PPP/cash, 1Q NII expected to be modestly lower after accounting for the negative impacts from 2 fewer days in the quarter ◦ NII and NIM will be pressured mostly by lower loan balances/mix, with rate environment pressure being offset by cash management strategies, deposit pricing, and higher hedge notional; 1Q hedge benefit estimate $102M ◦ Uncertain timing of PPP fee acceleration to benefit NII/NIM - closure of the SBA portal in 1Q will lead to lower PPP 1Q NII as forgiveness pushed later in 2021 • Excluding PPP/cash, NIM expected to remain relatively stable 4Q20 excl. PPP/cash 3Q20 excl. PPP/cash -1bps -1bps +3bps +1bps-4bps -$20M +$10M +$10M +$3M-$15M +$5M NIM NII Other(2) +1bps Loan bals/mix Cash mgmt. Long-term rates Deposit pricing Loan hedges Largely able to offset ongoing impacts of reinvestment through balance sheet management strategies 10
2021 expectations - Unchanged (1) Non-GAAP, see appendix in original 8-K filing for reconciliation. (2) The reconciliation with respect to forward-looking non-GAAP measures is expected to be consistent with actual non-GAAP reconciliations included in previous filings with the SEC. (3) Total revenue guidance assumes short- term rates remain near-zero and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains between 1.0% -1.25%. Category FY 2021 Expectations Total Adjusted Revenue (from adjusted 2020 of $6,206)(1)(2)(3) Down modestly (dependent on timing & amount of PPP forgiveness) Adjusted Non-Interest Expense (from adjusted 2020 of $3,541)(1)(2) Stable to down modestly Adjusted Average Loans (from adjusted 2020 of $81,890 )(1)(2) Down low single digits Adjusted Ending Loans (from adjusted 2020 of $79,607 )(1)(2) Up low single digits Net charge-offs / average loans 55 - 65 bps Effective tax rate 20% - 22% 54
Forward-Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are not based on historical information, but rather are related to future operations, strategies, financial results or other developments. Forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations as well as certain assumptions and estimates made by, and information available to, management at the time the statements are made. Those statements are based on general assumptions and are subject to various risks, and because they also relate to the future they are likewise subject to inherent uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from the views, beliefs and projections expressed in such statements. Therefore, we caution you against relying on any of these forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to, those described below: • Current and future economic and market conditions in the United States generally or in the communities we serve (in particular the Southeastern United States), including the effects of possible declines in property values, increases in unemployment rates, financial market disruptions and potential reductions of economic growth, which may adversely affect our lending and other businesses and our financial results and conditions. • Possible changes in trade, monetary and fiscal policies of, and other activities undertaken by, governments, agencies, central banks and similar organizations, which could have a material adverse effect on our earnings. • Possible changes in market interest rates or capital markets could adversely affect our revenue and expense, the value of assets and obligations, and the availability and cost of capital and liquidity. • The impact of pandemics, including the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, on our businesses, operations, and financial results and conditions. The duration and severity of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which has disrupted the global economy, has and could continue to adversely affect our capital and liquidity position, impair the ability of borrowers to repay outstanding loans and increase our allowance for credit losses, impair collateral values, and result in lost revenue or additional expenses. The pandemic could also cause an outflow of deposits, result in goodwill impairment charges and the impairment of other financial and nonfinancial assets, and increase our cost of capital. • Any impairment of our goodwill or other intangibles, any repricing of assets, or any adjustment of valuation allowances on our deferred tax assets due to changes in law, adverse changes in the economic environment, declining operations of the reporting unit or other factors. • The effect of changes in tax laws, including the effect of any future interpretations of or amendments to Tax Reform, which may impact our earnings, capital ratios and our ability to return capital to shareholders. • Possible changes in the creditworthiness of customers and the possible impairment of the collectability of loans and leases, including operating leases. • Changes in the speed of loan prepayments, loan origination and sale volumes, charge-offs, credit loss provisions or actual credit losses where our allowance for credit losses may not be adequate to cover our eventual losses. • Possible acceleration of prepayments on mortgage-backed securities due to low interest rates, and the related acceleration of premium amortization on those securities. • Loss of customer checking and savings account deposits as customers pursue other, higher-yield investments, which could increase our funding costs. • Possible changes in consumer and business spending and saving habits and the related effect on our ability to increase assets and to attract deposits, which could adversely affect our net income. • Our ability to effectively compete with other traditional and non-traditional financial services companies, including fintechs, some of whom possess greater financial resources than we do or are subject to different regulatory standards than we are. • Our inability to develop and gain acceptance from current and prospective customers for new products and services and the enhancement of existing products and services to meet customers' needs and respond to emerging technological trends in a timely manner could have a negative impact on our revenue. • Our inability to keep pace with technological changes, including those related to the offering of digital banking and financial services, could result in losing business to competitors. • Changes in laws and regulations affecting our businesses, including legislation and regulations relating to bank products and services, as well as changes in the enforcement and interpretation of such laws and regulations by applicable governmental and self-regulatory agencies, including as a result of the recent change in U.S. presidential administration and control of the U.S. Congress, which could require us to change certain business practices, increase compliance risk, reduce our revenue, impose additional costs on us, or otherwise negatively affect our businesses. • Our capital actions, including dividend payments, common stock repurchases, or redemptions of preferred stock or other regulatory capital instruments, must not cause us to fall below minimum capital ratio requirements, with applicable buffers taken into account, and must comply with other requirements and restrictions under law or imposed by our regulators, which may impact our ability to return capital to shareholders. Forward-looking statements
Forward-looking statements (continued) • Our ability to comply with stress testing and capital planning requirements (as part of the CCAR process or otherwise) may continue to require a significant investment of our managerial resources due to the importance of such tests and requirements. • Our ability to comply with applicable capital and liquidity requirements (including, among other things, the Basel III capital standards), including our ability to generate capital internally or raise capital on favorable terms, and if we fail to meet requirements, our financial condition and market perceptions of us could be negatively impacted. • The effects of any developments, changes or actions relating to any litigation or regulatory proceedings brought against us or any of our subsidiaries. • The costs, including possibly incurring fines, penalties, or other negative effects (including reputational harm) of any adverse judicial, administrative, or arbitral rulings or proceedings, regulatory enforcement actions, or other legal actions to which we or any of our subsidiaries are a party, and which may adversely affect our results. • Our ability to manage fluctuations in the value of assets and liabilities and off-balance sheet exposure so as to maintain sufficient capital and liquidity to support our business. • Our ability to execute on our strategic and operational plans, including our ability to fully realize the financial and non-financial benefits relating to our strategic initiatives. • The risks and uncertainties related to our acquisition or divestiture of businesses. • The success of our marketing efforts in attracting and retaining customers. • Our ability to recruit and retain talented and experienced personnel to assist in the development, management and operation of our products and services may be affected by changes in laws and regulations in effect from time to time. • Fraud or misconduct by our customers, employees or business partners. • Any inaccurate or incomplete information provided to us by our customers or counterparties. • Inability of our framework to manage risks associated with our business such as credit risk and operational risk, including third-party vendors and other service providers, which could, among other things, result in a breach of operating or security systems as a result of a cyber attack or similar act or failure to deliver our services effectively. • Dependence on key suppliers or vendors to obtain equipment and other supplies for our business on acceptable terms. • The inability of our internal controls and procedures to prevent, detect or mitigate any material errors or fraudulent acts. • The effects of geopolitical instability, including wars, conflicts, civil unrest, and terrorist attacks and the potential impact, directly or indirectly, on our businesses. • The effects of man-made and natural disasters, including fires, floods, droughts, tornadoes, hurricanes, and environmental damage (specifically in the Southeastern United States), which may negatively affect our operations and/or our loan portfolios and increase our cost of conducting business. The severity and impact of future earthquakes, fires, hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, floods and other weather-related events are difficult to predict and may be exacerbated by global climate change. • Changes in commodity market prices and conditions could adversely affect the cash flows of our borrowers operating in industries that are impacted by changes in commodity prices (including businesses indirectly impacted by commodities prices such as businesses that transport commodities or manufacture equipment used in the production of commodities), which could impair their ability to service any loans outstanding to them and/or reduce demand for loans in those industries. • Our ability to identify and address cyber-security risks such as data security breaches, malware, ransomware, 'denial of service' attacks, 'hacking' and identity theft, including account take-overs, a failure of which could disrupt our business and result in the disclosure of and/or misuse or misappropriation of confidential or proprietary information, disruption or damage to our systems, increased costs, losses, or adverse effects to our reputation. • Our ability to achieve our expense management initiatives. • Market replacement of LIBOR and the related effect on our LIBOR-based financial products and contracts, including, but not limited to, derivative products, debt obligations, deposits, investments, and loans. • Possible downgrades in our credit ratings or outlook could, among other negative impacts, increase the costs of funding from capital markets.
• The effects of a possible downgrade in the U.S. government's sovereign credit rating or outlook, which could result in risks to us and general economic conditions that we are not able to predict. • The effects of problems encountered by other financial institutions that adversely affect us or the banking industry generally could require us to change certain business practices, reduce our revenue, impose additional costs on us, or otherwise negatively affect our businesses. • The effects of the failure of any component of our business infrastructure provided by a third party could disrupt our businesses, result in the disclosure of and/or misuse of confidential information or proprietary information, increase our costs, negatively affect our reputation, and cause losses. • Our ability to receive dividends from our subsidiaries could affect our liquidity and ability to pay dividends to shareholders. • Changes in accounting policies or procedures as may be required by the FASB or other regulatory agencies could materially affect our financial statements and how we report those results, and expectations and preliminary analyses relating to how such changes will affect our financial results could prove incorrect. • Other risks identified from time to time in reports that we file with the SEC. • Fluctuations in the price of our common stock and inability to complete stock repurchases in the time frame and/or on the terms anticipated. • The effects of any damage to our reputation resulting from developments related to any of the items identified above. The foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive. For discussion of these and other factors that may cause actual results to differ from expectations, look under the captions 'Forward-Looking Statements' and 'Risk Factors' of Regions' Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020 as filed with the SEC. Further, statements about the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on our businesses and financial results and conditions may constitute forward-looking statements and are subject to the risk that the actual effects may differ, possibly materially, from what is reflected in those forward-looking statements due to factors and future developments that are uncertain, unpredictable and in many cases beyond our control, including the scope and duration of the pandemic (including any second wave or resurgences), actions taken by governmental authorities in response to the pandemic, and the direct and indirect impact of the pandemic on our customers, third parties and us. The words 'future,' 'anticipates,' 'assumes,' 'intends,' 'plans,' 'seeks,' 'believes,' 'predicts,' 'potential,' 'objectives,' 'estimates,' 'expects,' 'targets,' 'projects,' 'outlook,' 'forecast,' 'would,' 'will,' 'may,' 'might,' 'could,' 'should,' 'can,' and similar terms and expressions often signify forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date made. Factors or events that could cause our actual results to differ may emerge from time to time, and it is not possible to predict all of them. We assume no obligation and do not intend to update or revise any forward-looking statements that are made from time to time, either as a result of future developments, new information or otherwise, except as may be required by law. Regions' Investor Relations contact is Dana Nolan at (205) 264-7040; Regions' Media contact is Jeremy King at (205) 264-4551. Forward-looking statements (continued)
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