CoreLogic Inc.
05/07/2024 | News release | Distributed by Public on 05/07/2024 06:08
US Home Price Insights – May 2024
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.3% in March 2024 compared with March 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices grew by 1.2% in March 2024 compared with February 2024 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will rise by 0.8% from March 2024 to April 2024 and increase by 3.7% on a year-over-year basis from March 2024 to March 2025.
U.S. year-over-year home price gains remained above 5% in March for the fifth straight month and are projected to stay in that general range for most of the next 12 months. Northeastern states continued to post the nation's largest gains, as more Americans migrate to bedroom communities of major cities and job hubs, as well as areas where household incomes are relatively higher and can sustain the elevated cost of homeownership. In addition, the inventory gains seen in states like Florida and Texas still lag in the Northeast, a trend that continues to exacerbate supply-and-demand fundamentals and further adds to home price pressure in that region. Consequently, markets with larger additions of homes for sale are now experiencing slowing home price appreciation.
A look at metro-level appreciation mirrors regional trends. Camden, New Jersey; Hartford, Connecticut; Syracuse, New York; Worcester, Massachusetts; Newark, New Jersey; Allentown, Pennsylvania and Rochester, New York are among the 10 fastest-appreciating U.S. housing markets so far in 2024 of the top 100 tracked metros. The top 10 also includes two California metros - Anaheim and San Jose - as well as Miami. At the same time, states where some Americans migrated to escape the brunt of the pandemic are now the furthest from their price peaks, led by Idaho, Washington and Utah.
"Home prices increased again this March beyond the typical seasonal uptick, despite mortgage rates reaching this year's high and the affordability crunch continuing to keep many prospective buyers on the sidelines," said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. "Even with the long-anticipated break in for-sale inventory, the surging cost of homeownership, further fueled by rising insurance and tax expenses, is holding potential home sales back, as is evident in the slow rise in sales compared with last year. These price pressures reflect the overall supply-and-demand mismatch, as well as continued interest from households with larger budgets."
Dr. Selma Hepp- Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps - March 2024
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, home prices increased by 5.3% year over year in March. No states posted annual home price declines. The states with the highest increases year over year were New Jersey (12.2%), South Dakota (11.5%) and New Hampshire (10.6%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Below is a look at home price changes in 10 select large U.S. metros in March, with Miami posting the highest gain at 10.6% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL (70%-plus probability) is at a very high risk of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Atlanta-Sandy Spring-Roswell, GA; Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA; Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL and Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC are also at very high risk for price declines.
Summary
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases-including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data-and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry-complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month's end. The Index is completely refreshed each month-all pricing history from 1976 to the current month-to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the "Single-Family Combined" tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price-as a function of real disposable income per capita-with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers - "Single-Family Combined" (both attached and detached) and "Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales." As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall "health" of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
Source: CoreLogic
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About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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