NRCC - National Republican Congressional Committee

06/03/2020 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 06/02/2020 22:46

IOWA PRIMARY RESULTS

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: NRCC COMMUNICATIONS

DATE: JUNE 3, 2020

SUBJECT: IOWA PRIMARY RESULTS

Iowa presents three of the top pickup opportunities in the country for Republicans.

Ashley Hinson and David Young each head into the general election with more than $1 million cash on hand against freshmen Democrats who have accumulated extreme liberal voting records in their first term in Congress representing Trump districts.

IA-02 presents the only Democrat-held open seat in a Trump district. Rita Hart has already proven herself a weak candidate during her failed run for Lieutenant Governor in 2018, and will now face Mariannette Miller-Meeks, a veteran and physician with an extremely compelling background.

Despite Democrat claims, IA-04 remains a safe Republican district, and conservative state senator Randy Feenstra will be elected in November.

IA-01: Abby Finkenauer (D) vs. Ashley Hinson (R)

Abby Finkenauer has taken a laundry list of liberal positions and votes that will sink her campaign in the fall. Finkenauer's support for sanctuary cities and banning private health insurance in favor of a government-run health care plan is fatally toxic in Iowa.

Ashley Hinson represents a Clinton-won state house district, to which she was reelected in 2018 with 52% of the vote. Hinson is well known in the district, as she previously was a popular local news anchor in Cedar Rapids. She enters the general election with over $1 million cash on hand.

PVI: D+1

2016 Presidential Results: Trump 48.1% - Clinton 44.6%

Ratings: Cook Political Report - Toss Up; Inside Elections - Tilt Dem

Geography: The district includes most of northeastern Iowa including the state's second largest city, Cedar Rapids. The DMA split is 85.9% Cedar Rapids, 7.8% Des Moines, 3.7% Rochester (MN) and 2.6% Davenport.

IA-02: (Open) Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) vs. Rita Hart (D)

Rep. Dave Loebsack's retirement leaves Democrats defending an open seat in President Trump's second best performing district in the state.

The Democrats are left with an uninspiring candidate in failed 2018 Lieutenant Governor nominee Rita Hart. Hart's far-left voting record in the state senate is out of line with this conservative-leaning district, and her vote in favor of sanctuary cities will be difficult to overcome.

Mariannette Miller-Meeks served 24 years in the U.S. Army, rising from Private to Lieutenant Colonel and serving as a doctor. She was elected to the Iowa Senate in 2018.

PVI: D+1

2016 Presidential Results: Trump 48.5% - Clinton 44.4%

Ratings: Cook Political Report - Toss Up; Inside Elections - Tilt Dem

Geography: The district encompasses most of southeastern Iowa including the Iowa portion of the Quad Cities area. The DMA split is 43.2% Davenport, 23.8% Cedar Rapids, 19.2% Des Moines, 9.0% Ottumwa and 4.7% Quincy.

IA-03: Cindy Axne (D) vs. David Young (R)

This will be a rematch of one of the closest House races from 2018. Cindy Axne is the only Democrat who won last cycle with less than 50% of the vote.

Unlike 2018, Axne will not have the benefit of running without a record. Over the past 17 months, Axne has compiled a liberal voting record far outside the mainstream of this district, and studies show her support for the so-called 'public option' would force the closure of up to 52 vital rural hospitals in Iowa.

David Young remains well-known and popular in the district and has been one of the party's top fundraisers. He enters the general election with more than $1 million cash on hand.

PVI: R+1

2016 Presidential Results: Trump 48.0% - Clinton 44.5%

Ratings: Cook Political Report - Toss up; Inside Elections - Toss up

Geography: The district includes most of southwest Iowa including Des Moines, the state's largest city. The DMA split is 79.5% Des Moines and 20.5% Omaha.

IA-04: Randy Feenstra (R) vs. J.D. Scholten (D)

Former minor league baseball player J.D. Scholten lost to an underfunded and unpopular incumbent in 2018 and will lose by a wide margin this year in a matchup with conservative state senator Randy Feenstra, aided by President Trump at the top of the ticket.

The fact is this district was out of reach for Democrats even under the absolute best of circumstances. President Trump won IA-04 by a 27-point margin in 2016 and is likely to win by a similar margin in 2020.

Democrats who believe they can win here are either lying or delusional.

PVI: R+11

2016 Presidential Results: Trump 60.3% - Clinton 33.2%

Ratings: Cook Political Report - Solid GOP; Inside Elections - Solid GOP

Geography: The district includes most of northwest Iowa including Sioux City. The DMA split is 38.0% Des Moines, 37.7% Sioux City, 10.9% Rochester (MN), 5.8% Omaha, 5.2% Cedar Rapids and 2.4% Sioux Falls.

STATEWIDE ROUNDUP

The following are unofficial results from Tuesday's primary elections in Iowa.

* indicates winner determined by AP

IA-01 - GOP (100% reporting)

Ashley Hinson 78.0%

Thomas Hansen 22.0%

IA-01 - DEM

Abby Finkenauer (Uncontested)*

IA-02 - GOP (99%)

Mariannette Miller-Meeks 47.7%

Bobby Schilling 36.5%

Steven Everly 5.8%

Rick Phillips 5.1%

Tim Borchardt 4.9%

IA-02 - DEM

Rita Hart (Uncontested)*

IA-03 - GOP (100% reporting)

David Young 69.9%

Bill Schafer 30.1%

IA-03 - DEM

Cindy Axne (Uncontested)*

IA-04 - GOP (96% reporting)

Randy Feenstra 45.9%

Steve King 35.9%

Jeremy Taylor 7.7%

Bret Richards 7.4%

Steven Reeder 3.1%

IA-04 - DEM

J.D. Scholten (Uncontested)*