Washington Area Employment — October 2021

Total nonfarm employment for the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV, metropolitan area increased by 124,600 over the year in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. (See chart 1and table 1.) Regional Commissioner Alexandra Hall Bovee noted that the local rate of job growth, at 3.9 percent, compared to the 3.9-percent national increase. (All data in this release are not seasonally adjusted; accordingly, over-the-year analysis is used throughout.)

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV, is made up of two metropolitan divisions-separately identifiable employment centers within the greater metropolitan area. Employment increased over the year in both divisions. The Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV, division, with 82 percent of the area's total nonfarm employment, gained 100,700 jobs over the year. The Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, MD, division, which accounted for the remaining 18 percent of the area's employment, added 23,900 jobs since October 2020.

Industry employment

In Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV, leisure and hospitality had the largest job growth (+46,000), with both divisions recording increases. (See chart 2.) Within this supersector, the accommodation and food services sector in the metropolitan area added 40,000 jobs. The metropolitan area had a 19.5-percent gain compared to the 13.4-percent gain for the nation.

Professional and business services added 32,800 jobs in the metropolitan area, with the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV, division accounting for a gain of 25,600 jobs. The industry's rate of growth in the metropolitan area was 4.3 percent, compared to the national gain of 5.2 percent.

Education and health services added 19,300 jobs in the metropolitan area, with the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV, division accounting for a gain of 15,500 jobs. In the metropolitan area, the health care and social assistance sector contributed 13,700 jobs to the gains within this supersector. The industry's 4.6-percent increase in the metropolitan area compared to an increase of 2.1 percent at the national level.

Twelve largest metropolitan areas

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV, was 1 of the nation's 12 largest metropolitan statistical areas in October 2021. All 12 areas added jobs over the year. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA, had the largest increase (+326,400), followed by New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (+302,600). Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD, had the smallest gain (+88,800) among the largest areas.(See table 2 and chart 3.)

Los-Angeles had the largest rate of job gain at 5.8-percent. Both Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH, and Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ, had a 5.6-percent rate of job gain. The rates of job gains in the remaining nine areas ranged from 5.0 percent for both Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL, to 3.1 percent in Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI.

The Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment release for October 2021 is scheduled to be released on Thursday, December 2, 2021, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).

Technical Note

Special technical note: This technical note describes the procedures regularly used on a monthly basis to develop estimates from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, some of the procedures described in this technical note have been modified. The modifications are briefly described in the box note of this news release. More information on the changes to the CES business birth-death model is available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm.

This release presents nonfarm payroll employment estimates from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. The CES survey is a Federal-State cooperative endeavor between State employment security agencies and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Definitions. Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who receive pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Persons are counted at their place of work rather than at their place of residence; those appearing on more than one payroll are counted on each payroll. Industries are classified on the basis of their principal activity in accordance with the 2017 version of the North American Industry Classification System.

Method of estimation. CES State and Area employment data are produced using several estimation procedures. Where possible these data are produced using a "weighted link relative" estimation technique in which a ratio of current-month weighted employment to that of the previous-month weighted employment is computed from a sample of establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of employment for the current month are then obtained by multiplying these ratios by the previous month's employment estimates. The weighted link relative technique is utilized for data series where the sample size meets certain statistical criteria.

For some employment series, the sample of establishments is very small or highly variable. In these cases, a model-based approach is used in estimation. These models use the direct sample estimates (described above), combined with forecasts of historical (benchmarked) data to decrease volatility in estimation. Two different models (Fay-Herriot Model and Small Domain Model) are used depending on the industry level being estimated. For more detailed information about each model, refer to the BLS Handbook of Methods at www.bls.gov/opub/hom/pdf/ces-20110307.pdf.

Annual revisions. Employment estimates are adjusted annually to a complete count of jobs, called benchmarks, derived principally from tax reports which are submitted by employers who are covered under state unemployment insurance (UI) laws. The benchmark information is used to adjust the monthly estimates between the new benchmark and the preceding one and also to establish the level of employment for the new benchmark month. Thus, the benchmarking process establishes the level of employment, and the sample is used to measure the month-to-month changes in the level for the subsequent months.

Reliability of the estimates. The estimates presented in this release are based on sample surveys, administrative data, and modeling and, thus, are subject to sampling and other types of errors. Sampling error is a measure of sampling variability-that is, variation that occurs by chance because a sample rather than the entire population is surveyed. Survey data also are subject to nonsampling errors, such as those which can be introduced into the data collection and processing operations. Estimates not directly derived from sample surveys are subject to additional errors resulting from the specific estimation processes used. The sums of individual items may not always equal the totals shown in the same tables because of rounding.

Employment estimates. Changes in metropolitan area nonfarm payroll employment are cited in the analysis of this release only if they have been determined to be statistically significant at the 90-percent confidence level. Measures of sampling error for the total nonfarm employment series are available for metropolitan areas and metropolitan divisions at www.bls.gov/web/laus/790stderr.htm. Measures of sampling error for more detailed series at the area and division level are available upon request. Measures of sampling error for states at the supersector level and for the private service-providing, goods-producing, total private and total nonfarm levels are available on the BLS website at https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/790stderr.htm. Information on recent benchmark revisions is available online at www.bls.gov/web/laus/bmrk_article.htm.

Area definitions. The substate area data published in this news release reflect the delineations issued by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget on April 10, 2018. The 12 metropolitan areas discussed in this release are the metropolitan areas with the largest population according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area includes the District of Columbia; Arlington, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Rappahannock, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and Warren Counties, and Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, and Manassas Park Cities in Virginia; Calvert, Charles, Frederick, Montgomery, and Prince George's Counties in Maryland; and Jefferson County in West Virginia.

• The Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Division includes the District of Columbia; Arlington, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Rappahannock, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and Warren Counties, and Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, and Manassas Park Cities in Virginia; Calvert, Charles, and Prince George's Counties in Maryland; and Jefferson County in West Virginia.

• The Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, MD Metropolitan Division includes Frederick and Montgomery Counties in Maryland.

Additional information

Employment data from the CES program are available on the BLS website at www.bls.gov/sae/.

Information in this release will be made available to individuals with sensory impairments upon request. Voice phone: (202) 691-5200; Federal Relay Service: (800) 877-8339.

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