Scientists detail research to assess the viability and risks of marine cloud brightening

Ship tracks in the East Pacific Ocean as seen from the NOAA-20 satellite on April 24, 2019. (Image by NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service.)

As the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to increase and climate change impacts become more costly, the scientific community is redoubling efforts to investigate the potential risks and benefits of artificially shading Earth's surface to slow global warming.

Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is one of two primary solar radiation modification methods being proposed to offset the worst effects of global warming over the short term while decarbonization advances a clean energy agenda as a long term strategy to achieve climate stability. MCBproposals involve the injection of salt spray into shallow marine clouds to brighten them, increasing their reflection of sunlight and reducing the amount of heat absorbed by the atmosphere and climate system.

A group of 31 leading atmospheric scientists are now offering a consensus physical science research roadmap to build the knowledge base needed to evaluate the viability of MCBapproaches. Their roadmap is described in a new paper published in the journal Science Advances.

"Substantial and targeted MCBfocused research is needed to address associated knowledge gaps and determine the feasibility of MCBto mitigate adverse effects of climate change." - Virendra Ghate, Argonne principal atmospheric scientist

The paper was the result of a report produced from a MCBworkshop held in April 2022. It was jointly sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric System Research (ASR) - an Office of Biological and Environmental Research program, together with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR). Attendees included scientists from the United States and Europe and program managers from DOE, NOAA, the National Science Foundation and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

"Programs such as ASRhave a long history of probing processes related to aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions so that they can be better represented in Earth system models used for predicting the future climate," said Virendra Ghate, a principal atmospheric scientist at DOE's Argonne National Laboratory who served as a co-organizer of the workshop and co-author of the paper.

"However, so far, we have predominantly focused on these interactions occurring in regions with minimal or inadvertent human influence through pollution. Although theoretically possible, there are multiple ways that an effort like MCBmight not work and produce unintended adverse effects. Substantial and targeted MCBfocused research is needed to address associated knowledge gaps and determine the feasibility of MCBto mitigate adverse effects of climate change," said Ghate.

"Interest in MCBis growing, but policymakers currently don't have the information they need to reach decisions about if and when MCBshould be deployed," said lead author Graham Feingold, a researcher with NOAA's Chemical Sciences Laboratory. ​"The question is whether we can design a MCBresearch program using our current modeling and observational tools to establish the feasibility of this approach on a global scale, and if not, what needs to be done to position ourselves to do so."

This diagram depicts the key processes in the marine boundary layer (left) and the MCBapproach using ship-based generators to produce fine sea-salt aerosol droplets (right). The droplets are lofted into clouds by updrafts, where they increase droplet concentrations, extending the reflectivity coverage and lifetime of the clouds. (Image by Sorooshian et al. 2019.)

Artificially shading the planet would do nothing to reduce the driver of climate change, human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, said co-author Lynn Russell, a climate scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego. ​"The recent acceleration of impacts from global warming means that we need to consider non-ideal backup plans just to buy us enough time to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and existing burdens," Russell said. ​"A research plan is essential before we can consider adopting MCB, and we need to simultaneously address the physical science questions and the human dimensions."

Current MCBproposals rely on saltwater spray, which would mimic plumes of sulfur-rich emissions from ship stacks or volcanoes, to increase the aerosol concentration in the lower marine atmosphere. Ideally, droplets in the saltwater spray evaporate to produce fine particles that are carried up to the cloud layer by turbulent and convective air motions. If MCBtechniques could consistently influence clouds to reflect more sunlight back to space than similar clouds with a lower droplet concentration, then it has the potential to be an effective solar radiation modification technique, at least at the regional scale, scientists say. This in turn could produce some cooling if the MCBdeployments are sustained and extended to larger scales.

The study proposes a substantial and targeted program of MCBresearch that includes laboratory studies, field experiments and cloud modeling. As a result, new laboratory facilities are needed to address gaps in understanding of aerosol and cloud microphysical processes, as few existing labs are capable of addressing these processes.

Long-running field experiments using a point source at an ocean-based location where the conditions are favorable, along with new observations and new modeling techniques are needed to test salt-particle spraying technology. This would allow scientists to determine the degree to which sea spray emitted near the surface would reach the cloud base in a variety of conditions.

Researchers can take advantage of existing analogs to cloud-seeding experiments, such as natural volcanic emissions, biomass burning, exhaust plumes from individual ships or designated shipping lanes, urban point sources and urban plumes.

An integrated approach to an MCBresearch program comprising laboratory facilities, field experiments and modeling. Earth view image is courtesy of the European 336 Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, with modifications to highlight ship tracks and model mesh. (Image by Chelsea Thompson/NOAA.)

In practical terms, researchers need to develop sufficient confidence that appropriately sized particles can be generated and delivered to the clouds, and once there, act to form cloud droplets that efficiently scatter sunlight. They would need to show that clouds could be brightened consistently and over a large enough area to meaningfully cool the atmosphere and the ocean below - and that trying to manipulate clouds would not cause clouds to thin, or droplets to rain out, which might allow for increased heating. Scientists would furthermore need to show that the brightening of the clouds would be measurable to demonstrate it would work as intended at globally relevant scales, or in sensitive regional ecosystems, such as coral reefs.

Clouds are not all created equally - some are more susceptible to aerosol injections than others. A cloud that is already bright, with a high droplet concentration, is much more difficult to brighten than a wispy cloud with a low droplet concentration. How a cloud responds to attempted manipulation is subtly dependent on the weather and background aerosol conditions. Complicating matters, the optimal particle size and amount is likely dependent on cloud properties that can change as they drift through the air. This explains the high variability in ship-track occurrence, Feingold said.

"We would have to get the right-sized particles into receptive clouds at the right times of day and seasons, and over large-enough areas to shade large areas of ocean," said Feingold. ​"It's a major challenge."

"To the extent that we can identify optimal brightening conditions, a targeted approach to MCB, rather than routine spraying under all conditions, might have a higher probability of success," Feingold said. ​"It might also reduce the risk of regional circulation responses that change temperature and rainfall in ways that benefit some and leave others vulnerable." More generally, Feingold re-emphasizes that MCBwould not replace decarbonization and would not alleviate ocean acidification. ​"To reduce global temperatures, our highest priority should be to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. MCBmight help to alleviate the worst impacts of climate change."

Adapted from the original story by NOAA Communications. For more information, contact Theo Stein, NOAACommunications: theo.​stein@​noaa.​gov.

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