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Statistik Austria

11/19/2020 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 11/19/2020 04:50

Population forecast 2020: from 2021, more elderly people than children and teenagers

Press release: 12.374-214/20

Vienna, 2020-11-19 - The current trend of a growing and ageing population in Austria will continue in the future, as the population forecast published today by Statistics Austria shows. According to the forecast, Austria's population will grow from 8.88 million in 2019 by 6% to 9.45 million by 2040, and finally by 12% to 9.93 million by 2080. From 2021, there will be more people of the generation 65+ than under 20-year-olds.

Migration gains exceed projected birth deficits

The expected increase in population is exclusively due to supposed migration gains of about 30 000 people per year. This continues a long-standing trend: Since the turn of the century, the Austrian population has increased mainly due to migration surpluses. In the 2001 census, Austria counted just over 8 million inhabitants for the first time, the annual average in 2010 was 8.36 million. By 2019, there was a further increase by 6% to 8.88 million. Of the growth since the turn of the century, only just below 5% were due to birth surpluses, while the majority was due to migration gains. As the number of deaths is expected to rise above the number of births in the coming years, the birth balance will thus become negative. Nevertheless, according to current calculations, the population will exceed the nine million mark in 2022. A further increase is also likely for the period thereafter, as the projected migration gains will exceed the losses from natural population change.

Strongest population growth at retirement age

The population aged 65 and over will continue to grow strongly in number and proportion. From 2021, more people aged 65+ will be living in Austria than children and young people under 20. Apart from stagnating birth rates and a presumably continuing increase in life expectancy, this is mainly due to the strong birth cohorts of the 1950s and 1960s, who are gradually moving into retirement age. In 2040, the population aged 65+ should be by 48% (or more than 800 000 persons) larger than in 2019, while at the same time their share in the population will increase from 18.9% to 26.4%. The number of people in working age from 20 to under 65 years will remain slightly above the 2019 level until 2021, but, until 2040, will fall by almost 300 000 people (5%) below the current level (see table 1). After 2040, the number of people of working age is projected to remain largely constant. Although the absolute number of children and young people under the age of 20 will still increase slightly, their share in the total population will decline in the medium term from 19.3% (2019) to 18.8% (2040).

Proportion of foreign-born population to increase from 20% to 27% in the long term

Assuming continued international immigration, the number of foreign-born people in Austria will continue to increase in the future. In 2019, 1.75 million foreign-born people (20% of the total population) were living in Austria (see table 1). According to the forecast, their number will rise to 2.23 million (+28%) by 2040 and finally to 2.67 million by 2080 (+53% compared to the base year 2019). According to the forecast, the share of people not born in Austria will thus increase to 24% by 2040 and to 27% by 2080 (see table 1).

Eastern regions of Austria show strongest growth

The 12% population growth forecast for Austria up to 2080 will be distributed very unevenly across the regions. Above-average increases are expected in Vienna. The federal capital alone attracts almost 40% of the international immigration to Austria. According to the forecast, Vienna will exceed the two million mark in 2028, as it last did at the beginning of the 20th century. In Carinthia, on the other hand, slight population losses are expected, as was already the case between 2010 and 2013 and in 2018, which will cause the population to fall behind Salzburg from 2021 onwards. Salzburg will thus become the sixth largest federal state in terms of population. Besides Vienna, above-average population growth is also forecasted for Lower Austria, while the trend in Salzburg and Styria is below the federal average. The expected population growth in Burgenland as well as in Upper Austria, Tyrol and Vorarlberg is largely in line with the forecasted average for Austria. (see table 2).

For more detailed results or information on the population forecast please refer to our website. An interactive population pyramid (available in German only) can be found on our website as well.

Information on methods, definitions:To calculate the forecast, the population differentiated by age, gender and country of birth is extrapolated into the future as of 1 January 2020. The population ages by one year per calendar year. The new birth cohorts of a forecast year are calculated using age-specific fertility rates (live births by age of mother). Deaths are calculated by multiplying age- and gender-specific mortality rates by population size. While international emigration is calculated from rates in the same way as deaths, immigration is given in absolute figures (also according to age and gender). In the long term, 145 000 immigrants are expected annually. With around 115 000 people moving away, this results in annual migration gains of around 30 000 people. The internal migration between the nine federal states of Austria is modelled by means of age-, gender- and direction-specific migration rates.
When interpreting the results according to the characteristic 'born in Austria/abroad', it should be noted that this is not a forecast of the population of Austria according to nationality ('foreigner forecast'). The future development of the population according to citizenship depends not only on international immigration and emigration (and of course also on their fertility and mortality), but in particular on the development of naturalisation rates. These depend largely on future political conditions and are therefore difficult to anticipate. In contrast, the feature chosen here, 'country of birth', remains unchanged for the lifetime of the respective person.

Year Total population, absolute In percent Foreign born
Total 0-19 years 20-65 years 65 and more years 0-19 years 20-64 years 65 and more years total in percent
2019 8 877 637 1 717 820 5 478 294 1 681 523 19.3 61.7 18.9 1 746 206 19.7
2020 8 921 789 1 723 164 5 490 982 1 707 643 19.3 61.5 19.1 1 781 853 20.0
2030 9 225 271 1 777 747 5 306 807 2 140 717 19.3 57.5 23.2 2 027 017 22.0
2040 9 446 759 1 775 187 5 180 656 2 490 916 18.8 54.8 26.4 2 230 014 23.6
2050 9 605 926 1 778 518 5 173 762 2 653 646 18.5 53.9 27.6 2 394 501 24.9
2060 9 688 072 1 813 092 5 111 733 2 763 247 18.7 52.8 28.5 2 520 692 26.0
2070 9 796 723 1 834 400 5 131 991 2 830 332 18.7 52.4 28.9 2 609 525 26.6
2080 9 929 792 1 844 648 5 171 974 2 913 170 18.6 52.1 29.3 2 666 091 26.8
NUTS2 Region 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Burgenland 293 861 295 001 305 992 315 125 320 819 323 946 328 317 333 920
Carinthia 561 062 561 078 555 204 548 034 539 045 528 201 523 449 523 838
Lower Austria 1 680 588 1 688 169 1 757 644 1 816 610 1 865 064 1 895 405 1 930 470 1 970 491
Upper Austria 1 486 141 1 493 590 1 549 696 1 590 598 1 616 373 1 628 054 1 646 825 1 669 460
Salzburg 556 627 559 444 572 864 580 766 585 626 587 116 590 884 596 639
Styria 1 244 474 1 247 840 1 267 024 1 278 306 1 281 466 1 275 511 1 277 266 1 286 180
Tyrol 755 695 759 600 786 706 804 975 816 540 820 437 826 260 834 257
Vorarlberg 395 949 398 186 412 279 421 743 427 821 430 351 433 132 436 884
Vienna 1 903 240 1 918 881 2 017 862 2 090 602 2 153 172 2 199 051 2 240 120 2 278 123
Austria in total 8 877 637 8 921 789 9 225 271 9 446 759 9 605 926 9 688 072 9 796 723 9 929 792

For further inquiries please contact Directorate Social Statistics. Statistics Austria:
Alexander HANIKA, Tel. +43 1 71128-7279 resp. [email protected] gv at

Media owner, producer and publisher:
STATISTICS AUSTRIA, Federal Institution under Public Law
1110 Wien, Guglgasse 13, Tel.: +43 1 71128-7777
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