COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths

• The figures show the number of new (top row) and total (bottom row) COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from March 12 through May 14 and forecasted over the next 4 weeks, through June 11.
• This week, 22 modeling groups contributed a forecast that was eligible for inclusion in the new or total deaths ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction.
• Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details on the assumptions and methods used to produce the forecasts.

Download national forecast data excel icon [XLS - 17 KB]

State Forecasts

State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 deaths for the next 4 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states and only forecasts meeting a set of ensemble inclusion criteria are shown. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble/external icon . Plots of the state-level ensemble forecast and the underlying data can be downloaded below.

Download state forecasts pdf icon [PDF - 1 MB]

Download forecast data excel icon [CSV - 591 KB]

Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon .

Forecast Inclusion, Evaluation, and Assumptions

Forecasts are listed when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements and a subset are included in the ensemble. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensembleexternal icon .

Ensemble and specific team forecast performance is evaluated using a variety of metrics, including the assessment of prediction interval coverage. This assessment is available at https://delphi.cmu.edu/forecast-eval/external icon .

The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Additional individual model details are available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.md.external icon Details on the ensemble's accuracy in short-term predictions and its usefulness as a real-time tool to help guide policy and planning can be found here: Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.external icon

Intervention assumptions fall into multiple categories:

• These modeling groups assume that existing social distancing measures will continue through the projected 4-week time period:
  • Bob Paganoexternal icon (Model: BPagano)
  • Discrete Dynamical Systemsexternal icon (Model: DDS)
  • Georgia Institute of Technology, College of Computingexternal icon (Model: GT-DeepCOVID)
  • Hong Kong University of Science and Technologyexternal icon (Model: DNN)
  • Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU-APL)
  • Johns Hopkins University, Infectious Disease Dynamics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU-IDD)
  • Karlen Working Groupexternal icon (Model: Karlen)
  • Lehigh University Computational Uncertainty Labexternal icon (Model: LUcompUncertLab-VAR_3streams)
  • Masaryk Universityexternal icon (Model: Masaryk)
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cassandraexternal icon (Model: MIT-Cassandra)
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Institute for Data, Systems, and Societyexternal icon (Model: MIT-ISOLAT)
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Laboratory of Computational Physiologyexternal icon (Model: MIT-LCP)
  • Microsoft AIexternal icon (Model: Microsoft)
  • Northeastern University, Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systemsexternal icon (Model: MOBS)
  • Qi-Jun Hongexternal icon (Model: QJHong)
  • Robert Walravenexternal icon (Model: ESG)
  • Steve McConnellexternal icon (Model: CovidComplete)
  • University of California, San Diego and Northeastern Universityexternal icon (Model: UCSD-NEU)
  • University of Southern Californiaexternal icon (Model: USC)

¹ The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.

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