CBS - Statistics Netherlands

09/23/2021 | News release | Distributed by Public on 09/23/2021 07:12

Economic outlook more positive again

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy with 13 key macro-economic indicators. It provides a coherent macro-economic picture based on all the figures published by CBS over the past month or quarter and does not necessarily represent the situation at the level of individual households, businesses or regions.

2014 January -0.91
2014 February -0.86
2014 March -0.83
2014 April -0.82
2014 May -0.8
2014 June -0.8
2014 July -0.78
2014 August -0.77
2014 September -0.76
2014 October -0.74
2014 November -0.7
2014 December -0.67
2015 January -0.62
2015 February -0.58
2015 March -0.53
2015 April -0.48
2015 May -0.43
2015 June -0.37
2015 July -0.33
2015 August -0.3
2015 September -0.26
2015 October -0.26
2015 November -0.24
2015 December -0.22
2016 January -0.22
2016 February -0.21
2016 March -0.19
2016 April -0.18
2016 May -0.13
2016 June -0.1
2016 July -0.07
2016 August -0.01
2016 September 0.03
2016 October 0.06
2016 November 0.12
2016 December 0.16
2017 January 0.2
2017 February 0.26
2017 March 0.33
2017 April 0.34
2017 May 0.44
2017 June 0.46
2017 July 0.49
2017 August 0.56
2017 September 0.6
2017 October 0.63
2017 November 0.69
2017 December 0.74
2018 January 0.78
2018 February 0.85
2018 March 0.9
2018 April 0.88
2018 May 0.96
2018 June 0.95
2018 July 0.97
2018 August 0.98
2018 September 0.97
2018 October 0.95
2018 November 0.92
2018 December 0.89
2019 January 0.83
2019 February 0.83
2019 March 0.77
2019 April 0.73
2019 May 0.76
2019 June 0.7
2019 July 0.73
2019 August 0.68
2019 September 0.63
2019 October 0.61
2019 November 0.76
2019 December 0.6
2020 January 0.6
2020 February 0.57
2020 March 0.51
2020 April 0.49
2020 May -0.99
2020 June -1.93
2020 July -1.5
2020 August -1.47
2020 September -1.09
2020 October -0.93
2020 November -0.62
2020 December -0.53
2021 January -0.46
2021 February -0.87
2021 March -0.6
2021 April -0.61
2021 May -0.16
2021 Juni 0.08
2021 Juli 0.48
2021 August 0.91
2021 September 1.1

Consumer confidence virtually unchanged, producer confidence deteriorated

In September, confidence among Dutch consumers has hardly changed. However, producer confidence deteriorated in August. Both consumer and producer confidence are positioned above their long-term average.

2017 January 21 6
2017 February 22 7
2017 March 24 7.8
2017 April 26 8.3
2017 May 23 6.1
2017 June 23 7.2
2017 July 25 6.6
2017 August 26 5.4
2017 September 23 8.5
2017 October 23 8.2
2017 November 22 9.1
2017 December 25 8.9
2018 January 24 10.3
2018 February 23 10.9
2018 March 24 9.5
2018 April 25 8.2
2018 May 23 9.8
2018 June 23 7.7
2018 July 23 6.3
2018 August 21 5.9
2018 September 19 5.7
2018 October 15 5.9
2018 November 13 7.2
2018 December 9 7.5
2019 January 0 5.8
2019 February -2 6.3
2019 March -4 6.1
2019 April -3 6.7
2019 May -3 4.7
2019 June 0 3.3
2019 July 2 3.9
2019 August 0 3.9
2019 September -2 3.3
2019 October -1 3.6
2019 November -2 2.8
2019 December -2 2.9
2020 January -3 2.5
2020 February -2 3.7
2020 March -2 0.2
2020 April -22 -28.7
2020 May -31 -25.1
2020 June -27 -15.1
2020 July -26 -8.7
2020 August -29 -5.4
2020 September -28 -4.8
2020 October -30 -5.6
2020 November -26 -3.8
2020 December -20 -0.4
2021 January -19 0.6
2021 February -19 0.1
2021 March -18 3.4
2021 April -14 6.5
2021 May -9 8.8
2021 June -3 11.5
2021 July -4 12.3
2021 August -6 9.6
2021 September -5

Higher exports, investments and household consumption

Consumers spent 4.8 percent more in July 2021 than in the same month last year. The growth rate was lower than in May and June, when household consumption was up by 11.0 and 6.7 percent year-on-year, respectively. This can largely be attributed to the low household consumption level in the spring of 2020 as a result of the first lockdown. In July 2021, household consumption was 2.1 percent higher than in July 2019.

In July 2021, the total volume of goods exports was up by 8.4 percent year-on-year. The increase was mainly seen in exports of machinery, chemical and metal products. Compared to July 2019, exports were 8.8 percent higher. The volume of imports in July was up by 8.0 percent year-on-year and by 5.9 percent relative to July 2019.

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets rose by 4.2 percent year-on-year in July 2021. There were mainly more investments in dwellings and buildings, but fewer investments in passenger cars and infrastructure. Compared to July 2019, investments were approximately 1 percent higher.

Manufacturing output 14.1 percent up in July

In July 2021, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 14.1 percent from July 2020, according to Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Output was up by 17.9 percent in the previous month. Compared to July 2019, growth was more than 9 percent. This made up amply for the loss in July 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Fewer bankruptcies in August

The number of corporate bankruptcies, adjusted for court session days, has decreased again. There were 11 fewer bankruptcies in August than in the previous month. The number of pronounced bankruptcies remained at a historically low level.

House prices continue to rise

In August, owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 17.8 percent more expensive than in the same month last year. It is the largest increase since October 2000. The price rise moderated slightly in 2019 but picked up again after that.

More hours worked, more vacancies, fewer unemployed

In Q2 2021, the number of hours worked adjusted for seasonal effects was 1.1 percent higher than in Q1 2021. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q1 2021 amounted to more than 3.4 billion.

In August, 301 thousand people were unemployed. Three months earlier, in May, there were 309 thousand unemployed. The number of unemployed has therefore decreased over the past three months by an average of 3 thousand per month. The unemployment rate stood at 3.2 percent in August.

The number of vacancies in Q2 2021 stood at 327 thousand. This is 82 thousand more than in the previous quarter. There has never been such a large quarter-on-quarter increase since the start of the measurement in 1997.

For the first time since the measurement started in 2003, the tension on the labour market has risen to such an extent that there are more vacancies than unemployed people. In Q2 2021, there were 106 vacancies for every 100 unemployed. The increase in tension is mainly attributable to a record growth in the number of vacancies.

In Q2 2021, turnover at temporary employment agencies rose by 3.0 percent relative to the previous quarter. Year-on-year, this turnover increased by 20.1 percent.

2014 Quarter 1 97.3
2014 Quarter 2 97.9
2014 Quarter 3 98.1
2014 Quarter 4 99.0
2015 Quarter 1 99.6
2015 Quarter 2 99.9
2015 Quarter 3 100.2
2015 Quarter 4 100.3
2016 Quarter 1 101.2
2016 Quarter 2 101.4
2016 Quarter 3 102.6
2016 Quarter 4 103.4
2017 Quarter 1 103.9
2017 Quarter 2 104.9
2017 Quarter 3 105.6
2017 Quarter 4 106.5
2018 Quarter 1 106.9
2018 Quarter 2 107.5
2018 Quarter 3 107.9
2018 Quarter 4 108.4
2019 Quarter 1 109.0
2019 Quarter 2 109.5
2019 Quarter 3 109.9
2019 Quarter 4 110.4
2020 Quarter 1 108.6
2020 Quarter 2 99.5
2020 Quarter 3 107.0
2020 Quarter 4 107.0
2021 Quarter 1 106.2
2021 Quarter 2 110.2

3.8 percent GDP growth in Q2 2021

According to the second estimate conducted by CBS, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.8 percent in Q2 2021 relative to the previous quarter. This economic growth was mainly due to increased household consumption and a higher trade balance. Relative to Q2 2020, GDP was up by 10.4 percent.