10/21/2020 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 10/21/2020 18:47
Interpretation of Forecasts of New Cases
State & County Forecasts
State-level and county-level forecast figures show observed and forecasted new COVID-19 cases in each location. Each forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the numbers of COVID-19 cases occurring in each jurisdiction. To aid in comparisons between jurisdictions, the ensemble plot for each location has a second axis (in grey) that shows the expected number of cases per 100,000 people.
Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecasting Hubexternal icon .
The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Information about individual models is available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon .
Intervention assumptions fall into one of two categories:
1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state specific prediction intervals.