National Bank of Romania

11/13/2018 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 11/13/2018 05:37

Balance of payments and external debt – September 2018

In January - September 2018p, the balance-of-payments current account posted a deficit of EUR 6,619 million, compared with EUR 4,779 million in January - September 2017; the deficit on trade in goods widened by EUR 1,492 million, the surplus on services income narrowed by EUR 190 million, the deficit of the primary income balance contracted by EUR 124 million, and the surplus of the secondary income balance decreased by EUR 282 million.

January - September 2017p January - September 2018p
CREDIT DEBIT BALANCE CREDIT DEBIT BALANCE
CURRENT ACCOUNT (A+B+C) 63,819 68,598 -4,779 68,656 75,275 -6,619
A. Goods and services 57,846 59,887 -2,041 62,813 66,536 -3,723
a. Goods 42,505 50,789 -8,284 46,402 56,178 -9,776
b. Services 15,341 9,098 6,243 16,411 10,358 6,053
- manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others 2,184 137 2,047 2,197 139 2,058
- transport 4,587 1,733 2,854 4,818 2,057 2,761
- tourism-travel 1,714 2,273 -559 1,779 2,718 -939
- other 6,856 4,955 1,901 7,617 5,444 2,173
B. Primary income 2,696 7,280 -4,584 2,826 7,286 -4,460
C. Secondary income 3,277 1,431 1,846 3,017 1,453 1,564

p - provisional data

Non-residents' direct investment in Romaniae totalled EUR 3,517 million (compared with EUR 3,731 million in January - September 2017), of which equity (including estimated net reinvestment of earnings) amounted to EUR 3,152 million and intercompany lending recorded a net value of EUR 365 million.

In January - September 2018, total external debt increased by EUR 634 million, of which:

  • long-term external debt at end-September 2018 stood at EUR 68,129 million (69.5 percent of total external debt), down 0.6 percent from end-2017;
  • short-term external debt at end-September 2018 amounted to EUR 29,866 million (30.5 percent of total external debt), up 3.6 percent against end-2017.
External debt External debt service, 9M 2018p
End-2017p End-September 2018p
I. Long-term external debt 68,520 68,129 13,080
I.1. Public debt 33,550 33,066 4,010
I.1.1. Direct public debt 33,118 32,694 3,945
I.1.2. Publicly guaranteed debt 432 372 65
I.2. Non-publicly guaranteed debt, of which: 33,799 33,878 9,041
1.2.1. Long-term deposits of non-residents 2,468 2,485 1,198
I.3. Debt of the monetary authority, of which: 1,171 1,185 29
I.3.1. Allocation of SDRs 1,171 1,185 29
II. Short-term external debt 28,841 29,866 31,073
Total external debt (I+II) 97,361 97,995 44,153

e - estimates
p - provisional data

Long-term external debt service ratio ran at 20.8 percent in January - September 2018 against 25 percent in 2017. At end-September 2018, goods and services import cover stood at 4.7 months, as compared to 5.4 months at end-2017.

At end-September 2018, the ratio of the National Bank of Romania's foreign exchange reserves to short-term external debt by remaining maturity came in at 72.6 percent, against 79 percent at end-2017.

Methodological Notes

  1. Data are updated on a monthly basis. Data for the current period together with the revised data for the base period are available under Data sets; historical monthly and quarterly data back to 2005 are available in the Interactive database.
  2. The international standard framework for statistics on the transactions and positions between an economy and the rest of the world lays down in the sixth edition of the IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The BPM6 methodology has been transposed into the EU legislation based on Commission Regulation (EU) No 555/2012 on Community statistics concerning balance of payments, international trade in services and foreign direct investment, as regards the update of data requirements and definitions.
  3. In order to analyse current account data, the following aspects should be considered:
    1. 3.1. Goods (on a BOP basis): Source: National Institute of Statistics (NIS) - International Trade of Goods. http://www.insse.ro/cms/files/statistici/Importuri_CIF_FOB/coeficient_CIF_FOB.pdf. Imports FOB are calculated by the NBR based on the CIF/FOB conversion factor set by the NIS. The balance of payments principle consists in entering goods based on the 'change in economic ownership' criterion (goods acquired by residents are included, irrespective of whether the goods cross the country border or not), while in international trade statistics goods are recorded based on the 'cross-border' criterion (goods are recorded when crossing the border, irrespective of whether they belong to residents or not). In order to ensure compliance with the 'change in economic ownership' principle, the NIS data are adjusted by the NBR, so that the values of exports and imports of goods in the BOP statistics are different from those in international trade statistics. The main difference between the two types of statistics comes from manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others which, according to BPM6, has been reclassified from Goods to Services and the data source has been changed from International Trade in Goods to the Quarterly Survey on international trade in services conducted by the NBR;
    2. 3.2. Services: Source: Quarterly Survey on International Trade in Services;
    3. 3.3. Primary income: includes compensation of employees, investment income (direct investment, portfolio investment, other investment) and other primary income (taxes, subsidies);
    4. 3.4. Secondary income: includes current private transfers and transfers of the general government.
  • Foreign direct investment: The permanent debt between affiliated financial intermediaries (banks, NBFIs) is not treated as direct investment, but recorded under financial account/other investment.
  • The balance of external public debt is cash-based (excluding unmatured accrued interest). External direct public debt includes external loans taken directly by the Ministry of Public Finance and local governments in compliance with the legislation on public debt, including the financial instruments acquired by non-residents - calculated at market value. External publicly guaranteed debt includes external loans guaranteed by the Ministry of Public Finance and local governments in compliance with the legislation on public debt. According to BPM6, the allocation of SDRs (item I.3.1 in the table) is included in the long-term external debt.
  • Long-term external debt service ratio is calculated as a ratio of long-term external debt service to exports of goods and services.
  • Import cover is calculated as a ratio of the international reserves (foreign exchange + gold) at the end of period to average monthly imports of goods and services for the period under review.
  • Short-term external debt by remaining maturity refers to the short-term external debt outstanding at the end of period plus the payments related to long-term external debt due in the following 12 months.