Queensland's 2022 coal exports poised for decline

Australia's Queensland coal shipments are on track for a third straight year of decline, as wet weather disrupts supply, and China's Covid-19 lockdowns and inflation curtail demand.

Shipments from the four largest coal ports in Australia's Queensland were at 17.36mn t in June, down by about 1mn t compared to a year earlier, despite drier weather after a wet May. The ports shipped 94.33mn t in January-June, down from 99.65mn t a year earlier, putting them on track to dispatch less coal in 2022 than the 197.29mn t shipped in 2021 and the peak of 219.24mn t in 2019.

The second half of the calendar year is often drier than the first, giving opportunity for suppliers to catch up on deliveries, but the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has issued a new La Nina watch for 2022-23 that could see a repeat of the record rainfall seen in November last year. Even if mining firms can catch up on output, the average to below-average ship queues at the Queensland ports could signal lower demand for the majority of the metallurgical coal that is exported from the state.

Total shipments were up from 16.92mn t in May, when some producers were affected by heavy rain and flooding.

The multi-user Dalrymple Bay coal terminal (DBCT) broke the 5mn t/month mark for the first time since November, but this compares with an average of 5.56mn t/month in 2019. The neighboring port of Hay Point, which is operated by BHP Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA), had its weakest month since February at 4.06mnt, despite June being the end of BHP's financial year. There were 29 ships waiting outside the adjacent ports on 25 July, up from 27 on 28 June.

Abbot Point shipments fell to 2.14mn t in June from 2.94mn t in May and from 2.58mn t in June 2021. Its January-June shipments fell to 14.05mn t from 14.96mn t a year earlier, despite the ramp-up of Indian conglomerate Adani's Carmichael thermal coal mine, which uses the port. Adani shipped first coal from Carmichael in January and hopes to ship 11mn-12mn t through Abbot Point in 2022. There were four ships waiting to load at the port on 25 July, up from three on 28 June.

Gladstone shipped 6.17mn t in June, up from 5.26mn t in May but down from 6.68mn t in June 2021. There were just 15 ships outside Gladstone on 25 July, down from 27 on 28 June and below the average of around 20.

Jo Clarke

Queensland coal shipments	mn t
Period	Hay Point	Abbot Point	Dalrymple Bay	Gladstone	Total
Jun '22	4.06	2.14	5	6.17	17.36
May '22	4.3	2.94	4.4	5.26	16.92
Jun '21	4.58	2.58	4.27	6.68	18.32
Jan-Jun '22	23.92	14.05	24.53	31.84	94.33
Jan-Jun '21	24.84	14.96	25.39	34.45	99.65
Sources: NQBP, GPCL

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