10/08/2020 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 10/08/2020 11:22
Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of October 5, 2020.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
Plots of individual state forecasts, each state-level ensemble forecast and the underlying data can be downloaded below. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale, due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states.
Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecasting Hubexternal icon .
An 'ensemble' forecast combines each of the independently developed forecasts into one aggregate forecast to improve prediction over the next 4 weeks. Both national and state-level ensemble forecasts are developed for predicting new and total COVID-19 deaths reported each week for the next 4 weeks. Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.external icon describes its accuracy in short-term predictions and its usefulness as a real-time tool to help guide policy and planning.
The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Information about individual models is available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon . The list below includes all models that submitted a national- or state-level forecast.
Forecasts fall into one of two categories:
1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.