04/16/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 04/16/2024 02:39
16/04/2024
Issued: Tuesday, 16 April 2024
The tropical Pacific Ocean has returned to ENSO-neutral according to the latest monitoring by the Bureau of Meteorology.
The change to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions means neither El Niño nor La Niña are active.
Rainfall and temperature forecasts are not based on El Niño and La Niña forecasts.
The long-range forecast is the best guidance for future rainfall and temperature beyond the short-term weather forecast.
The latest long-range forecast shows that for May to July:
A clearer indication of the likely 2024 winter forecast, including any changes in the ENSO Outlook, is expected later in autumn.
In the Bureau's history of ENSO events, El Niño years are followed by ENSO-neutral years about 50% of the time.
El Niño years are followed by La Niña years about 40% of the time. In around 10% of years an El Niño year has been followed by another El Niño year.
ENDS