Asian and Latino Voters Wield Power, Blue-Collar Latino Support For Trump

The California Senate primary augurs two equally likely scenarios for Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff: An easy road to victory if he faces off against former LA Dodgers first baseman Steve Garvey, who fumbled the first Senate debate; or a tough intraparty battle with Rep. Katie Porter. And Latino and Asian voters could powerfully influence the outcome.

The California Elections and Policy Poll (CEPP), conducted by Political Science Professor Jarred Cuellar with fellow elections and public policy experts from CSU Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy and the University of Southern California between Jan. 21-29, provides a snapshot of California voter sentiment in a chaotic election year. A survey of 1,416 representative of registered voters likely to cast their ballots on Nov. 5 gauged their attitudes towards the U.S. Senate primary, the Democratic presidential primary, the presidential election, and state ballot issues.

Cuellar delves into the poll's key findings.

Latino and Asian Americans, the Golden State's two fastest-growing racial/ethnic groups, could swing the outcome of the Senate primary. What dynamics are driving their voter power?

Cuellar: These are the two fastest-growing racial/ethnic groups in the state, and they have much in common. These communities have the largest number of foreign-born voters, both have high rates of multilingual abilities, and strong cultural ties. However, when looking at the results they are behaving very differently politically. Asian Americans have a clear preference for Schiff, while Latinos are split amongst Schiff, Porter, and Garvey. I believe these groups are growing in power partially because there is strength in numbers, and these groups makeup roughly 55 percent of the state population. The impacts of generational status and having a college degree may help explain the discrepancy in vote choice, as Latinos are less likely to have a college degree than are Asian Americans, while holding a college degree increases one's chance of voting for the Democratic party.

Looking ahead into November, poll results indicate President Joe Biden (52 percent) would easily beat former President Donald Trump (25 percent). Of Latinos polled who are registered as Republicans, 80% back Trump despite his hardline immigration rhetoric. How does Trump's blue-collar appeal affect this group?

Cuellar: It is very interesting that the demographic group that appears to be most supportive of Trump, in the state of California, is Latinos. While it is nowhere near a majority, at 31 percent, it shows that Trump has not deterred Latino voters in the past four years and has actually gained support amongst California Latinos. In 2020 roughly 22 percent of California Latinos supported Trump, so there's been a decent increase in support, which is most likely driven by blue-collar Latinos who are feeling the burden of inflation. This is a common trend amongst the American electorate - to blame the president when the economy is down or inflation is up.

What is interesting is that Trump gained significantly more Latino support than Mitt Romney had in 2012, which may be due to his ability to peel away blue-collar Latino workers, and we can see that this has been part of Trump's strategy, given he recently met with the Teamsters and has tried to gain support among rank-and-file UAW members. While he will not win the Latino vote, he has had some success in gaining support amongst the Latino community.

California has been experiencing a sustained housing shortage for decades. Polled voters are split on repealing the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act (39% in favor of repealing vs. 41% opposing), which allows rent control in certain apartments and does not apply to single-family home rentals. Is this stoked by the wealth gap, despite growing real wages seen in 2023?

Cuellar: I believe there is definitely a wealth divide that is very apparent in California. Many young adults who do not come from upper-middle class backgrounds no longer look at buying a house in California as something that is doable, but rather as a luxury reserved for the wealthy. Even more disheartening is that many do not see renting as an option either, with the median rent for a one-bedroom apartment in LA County being around $2,400, most find it easier to live with family or leave the state all together. This is a big problem because many apartments in LA County are not subject to rent-control if they were built after 1995. I graduated from Mayfair High School in Lakewood, Calif. in 2011, and many of my old classmates are now in other states or still live with their parents, and it is important to note that a significant share of these individuals also hold a college degree. We can see in the CEPP that there is a clear relationship between income and opposition to the repeal of Costa-Hawkins, with there being a 24-percentage point drop in support when comparing those making less than $50,000 to those making over $100,000

Headline-grabbing "smash and grabs" have soured voters on Proposition 47 (Safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act), which reduced drug possession offenses and thefts valued under $950 from felonies to misdemeanors. Of those polled, 71 percent believe the decade-old law is partly or "definitely" responsible for the spike in thefts. Does this signal support to fund law enforcement agencies to investigate theft cases, despite the "defund the police" movement?

Cuellar: I would argue that most in California were never subscribers to the "defund the police" movement. This is not to say that most did not support the Black Lives Matter movement, I just do not believe that support for the BLM movement translated into believing in defunding the police for most. I think more than anything this is voters saying that California gave Prop 47 a try, but they do not think it worked. California voters have a clear bent towards progressive law enforcement/prosecution practices as we can see with the passing of Prop 47, the election of George Gascon in Los Angeles County, SB 2 and prop 64. However, they have also seen a significant rise in crimes such as these smash and grabs, so people do not feel that Prop 47 works. Also, it is not just the smash and grabs themselves, but what has been occurring in communities where they occur. Many stores have closed in areas with high rates of smash and grabs, especially in San Francisco, which, along with Los Angeles, has been made an example as to why Prop 47 needs to go. Even Saturday Night Live made a joke about Los Angeles being dangerous, which is tied back to this increase in theft.

Also on the ballot is a proposition to decriminalize psilocybin ("magic mushrooms"). Most Californians are not in favor (48 percent) or undecided (17 percent) about legalizing the hallucinogenic that veterans and VA researchers say holds therapeutic promise for those suffering from PTSD. Oakland, San Francisco, Santa Cruz and Berkeley have already decriminalized natural psychedelics at the city level. Why the seeming opposition to state-level decriminalization?

This appears to mirror what we saw in 2010, when California made an attempt to become the first state in the country to legalize recreational cannabis for adults over 21. In 2010 cannabis was more mainstream than it was in the 1990's when Bill Clinton felt forced to say he "didn't inhale," but still people knew little about it and it still had a more negative connotation, which helped the measure fail. I think we're seeing something similar with psilocybin mushrooms, as people are still not aware of the benefits of hallucinogenics in aiding the symptoms of PTSD. However, people are very used to psilocybin being illegal, which comes with the notion that it must be denoted as such for a reason, therefore it is best to not vote to decriminalize. Also, as in most cases dealing with drugs, parents are going to be a key demographic that will be skeptical when it comes to decriminalizing an illicit substance. I do believe that if this measure fails, it will not be the last time we see it on the ballot. I would bet that psilocybin mushrooms will be decriminalized in the next 12 years, bar any new study that shows a significant health risk associated with their use.

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Voter Information: The California Presidential Primary is March 5, 2024. Cal Poly Pomona is hosting an on-campus vote center in the Student Services Building (SSB-W) multi-purpose rooms (#1967-69) from Saturday, March through Tuesday, March 5. For information, visit https://www.cpp.edu/student-affairs/election.shtml.

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