BULLETIN #14

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH for Jamaica remains in effect as Tropical Storm Ian is expected tostrengthen over the central Caribbean Sea while moving closer to Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Watchmeans that tropical storm conditions pose a possible threat to Jamaica within the next 48 hours.

At 10:00 a.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 14.4 degrees North, longitude
75.2 degrees West, or about 435 kilometres (270 miles) south-southeast of Kingston, or 405 kilometres
(251 miles) south- southeast of Morant Point, Jamaica.

Ian is moving towards the west-southwest near 24 km/h (15 mph), and this general motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward
turn on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 km/h (45 mph) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is
forecast during the next few days. Ian is expected to become a hurricane late Sunday evening and could
be at or near major hurricane strength late Monday when it approaches western Cuba. Tropical-stormforce winds
extend outward up to 95 km (60 miles) from the centre.

On the forecast track, the centre of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea today, pass
southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early
Monday. Ian will then approach western Cuba on Monday. The Tropical Storm has the potential to
produce 100-200 millimetres (4-8 inches) of rainfall, mainly over eastern and southern parishes as it
passes close to the island on Saturday afternoon and through to Sunday. Flash Flooding is therefore likely
over low-lying and flood-prone areas during the remainder of weekend and on Monday,

All small craft operators including fishers from the cays and banks should by now have completed all
the necessary safety precautions and are advised to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages
have been lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal.

The Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of this system, and all interests are
encouraged to pay special attention to further Releases. The next Bulletin on this system will be issued at
2:00 p.m. today