Austin Economic Indicators

May 03, 2024

Austin employment fell in March, the unemployment rate was stable, and retail tax revenue increased. Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) notices indicated that layoffs are elevated so far in 2024.

Business-cycle index

The Austin Business-Cycle Index, a broad measure of economic activity, grew an annualized 4.1 percent in March, slower than the 8.7 percent gain in February (Chart 1).

Labor market

Unemployment rate stabilizes

Austin's unemployment rate stayed at 3.4 percent in March, remaining below the state's and nation's rates of 3.9 and 3.8 percent, respectively (Chart 2). In February, the local labor force decreased an annualized 1.1 percent, while the state's increased 1.7 percent, and the nation's grew 3.3 percent.

Employment drops

Austin employment fell 0.9 percent in March after increasing 7.7 percent in February (Chart 3). Sectors with the most growth were government (900 jobs) and other services (420 jobs). Sectors that saw a decline included professional and business services (-791 jobs), trade, transportation and utilities (-668 jobs), and education and health services (-640 jobs). Year to date, Austin has seen 1.9 percent employment growth, below the state's 2.5 percent gains and the nation's 2.1 percent growth.

Metro retail sales tax collections

In March, Austin's real inflation-adjusted retail sales tax collections increased 6.3 percent, outpacing the state's collections, which grew 4.2 percent (Chart 4). Year over year, the metro retail sales tax collections rose 9.2 percent, contrasting Texas' collections, which grew 4.0 percent. This implies retail spending demand in the Austin area remains at elevated levels.

Mass layoffs (WARN)

Mass layoff notices (WARN notices) have been given to 3,885 employees in the Austin metropolitan statistical area so far in 2024, nearly double the annual average from 2012 to 2019 and double the number of layoff notices for 2021 and 2022 combined (Chart 5). Most of these losses are due to Tesla layoffs announced in April, accounting for 70 percent of the layoffs so far in 2024.

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