ISPI - Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale

05/02/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 05/02/2024 07:22

Another Blinken Middle East Mission: Success or Stalemate

The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we shed light on Antony Blinken's seventh visit to the Middle East since October 7.

This week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the Middle East for the seventh time since October 7. In his visit to Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, Blinken discussed Gaza's humanitarian crisis and the prospects for a ceasefire. However, the visit also centered on the bilateral cooperation between Washington and its regional allies, especially Riyadh. While the Secretary of State was in the region, a Gaza ceasefire proposal, crafted by Qatari, Egyptian and US mediators, was being discussed in Cairo. Despite some initial optimism, the outcome of the truce talks will ultimately depend on the calculations of the two parts involved in the conflict. Were the negotiations to fail, an Israeli military operation in Rafah - so far, a looming risk - could become a reality. Without a clear plan for the protection of civilians, the humanitarian impact of such an offensive would be appalling, further weakening Israel's stance at the international level. In this difficult context, Biden's handling of the Gaza war continues to have repercussions on US domestic politics. With pro-Palestine protests raging in universities and campuses across the country, Biden is currently facing a deep domestic crisis that might impact his presidential run in November.

Experts from the ISPI network discuss Blinken's visit to the Middle East.

On his 7th trip to the region, Blinken faces several challenges

"Blinken's main goal for this trip to the Middle East, his seventh since the war in Gaza started, is to secure an immediate ceasefire that ensures the release of Israeli hostages. A new proposal for a ceasefire is on the table, which is said to include new concessions by Israel. Blinken is characterising the deal as "extraordinarily generous" and urging Hamas to accept it. Linked to this is his engagement with Arab ministers on governance and security in Gaza following the fighting. Looming over those discussions is the parallel US push for a broad deal that would see the normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and a pathway toward Palestinian statehood. The Secretary is also pressing for sustained humanitarian aid in Gaza, although for aid to sufficiently address the imminent famine, it needs to be ramped up significantly and likely be accompanied by a cessation of hostilities."

Delaney Simon, Senior Analyst, International Crisis Group

A failure in the negotiations risks leading to a regional escalation

"Brinkmanship has characterised negotiations over truce and the release of hostages between Israel and Hamas throughout the war in Gaza, with the sides proved to play hardball. It seems that this week's negotiations have hit a brick wall, and the mediators are becoming frustrated as they increasingly feel that whenever there appears to be progress, the sides retract from understandings that they seemed to have reached beforehand. There is a growing feeling that both sides are more interested in the process than in reaching a positive conclusion. If this is the case, there is a danger of an Israel offensive in Rafah and with it, the resumption of full-scale hostilities, which might also lead to escalation with Hezbollah and beyond."

Yossi Mekelberg, Associate Fellow, Chatham House

Despite growing differences, the US is still Israel's key ally

"The US is Israel's most important ally. Ever since the Hamas terror attack of October 7, the Biden administration has been supportive of Israel and its security needs. The US is pushing to release hostages, mediates a diffusion of tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border, helped Israel block the Iranian missile attack, and provides Israel with diplomatic support at the UN. The US also seeks pathways to advance the two-state solution and Israel-Saudi normalisation, which are both of importance for Israel's future. While the US stands by Israel, the Biden administration has become highly critical of Prime Minister Netanyahu and his far-right partners, also regarding his dealing with the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and with settlers' extremism. Netanyahu's policies and goals for the "day after" the war contradict the regional future that the US is trying to shape. This has recently led top US officials to call for early elections in Israel, as is currently desired by the majority of Israelis."

Nimrod Goren, President, MITVIM; Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute; Co-Founder, Diplomeds

In case of a Rafah operation, the US might impose restrictions on arms sales

"The US administration has not vetoed an Israeli military operation in Rafah but remains concerned, urging Israel to present a plan addressing its reservations. The Biden administration is currently focused on a deal for the release of hostages that will allow for a ceasefire and initiate a process to advance its regional vision, which aims to promote stability in the Middle East, including through deepening Israel's integration and normalising relations with Saudi Arabia. There is growing pressure on Israel from the administration, even at the Biden-Netanyahu level, and leaks suggest that uncoordinated Israeli action could prompt US countermeasures, including potential restrictions on arms sales. If Israel acts militarily, the US will seek to influence the conduct of the operation and possibly thwart its actions."

Eldad Shavit, Senior Researcher, INSS

Ahead of elections, US University protests are a headache for Biden

"Pro-Palestine demonstrations are growing increasingly massive in US universities, facing the Biden administration with the challenge of incorporating their requests into its largely pro-Israel agenda. Since the Wisconsin primaries, the White House's attitude towards the Netanyahu government has gradually hardened due to the pressing needs of the electoral campaign. However, despite the recent quarrels over Israel's belligerent attitude (especially vis-à-vis Iran), the current events will hardly impact the administration's overall posture. Pro-Israel groups are a relevant share of the Democratic constituency, and the pro-Israel vote will be a contested battleground in the November elections. The President's most probable course of action remains walking the tightrope, downplaying the demonstrations' political significance and counting on polls showing how voters aged 18-29 have different priorities than foreign policy. In electoral terms, it is a potentially risky strategy. However, a more proactive stance risks highlighting the Party's divisions and - more importantly - those crisscrossing its electoral base, part of which openly resents what it considers the antisemitic tones of the protests."

Gianluca Pastori, Associate Research Fellow, ISPI