EIU's 2023 Democracy Index: conflict and polarisation drive a new low for global democracy

Note. "World" population refers to the total population of the 167 countries covered by the Index. Since this excludes only micro states, this is nearly equal to the entire estimated world population.
Source: EIU.

According to EIU's measure of democracy, almost half of the world's population live in a democracy of some sort (45.4%), but only 7.8% reside in a "full democracy" (scores above 8.00). Substantially more than one-third of the world's population live under authoritarian rule (39.4%). The good news is that the number of democracies increased by two in 2023, with Paraguay and Papua New Guinea being upgraded from "hybrid regimes" to "flawed democracies". Greece became a "full democracy", but Chile was reclassified as a "flawed democracy". Pakistan was downgraded to an "authoritarian regime", while Angola was upgraded to a "hybrid regime".

Three years after the covid-19 pandemic, which led to a rollback of freedoms around the globe, the results for 2023 point to a continuing democratic malaise and lack of forward momentum. Only 32 countries improved their index score in 2023, while 68 countries registered a decline. The scores for 67 countries stayed the same, painting a global picture of stagnation and regression. Most of the regression globally occurred among non-democracies, as "authoritarian regimes" became more entrenched and countries classified as "hybrid regimes" struggled to democratise.

The decline in the overall index score was driven by reversals in every region of the world except for western Europe, whose average index score improved by the smallest margin possible (0.01 points). The biggest regressions occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa. Countries in the Sahel and West Africa were also among the worst performers in the 2023 index, as coups and conflicts spread across the region. Adverse developments in Canada drove a decline in North America's score to 8.27, below that of western Europe (8.37), marking the first time that North America has not placed as the world's highest-scoring region since the Democracy Index launched in 2006.

The political landscape in the Americas and Europe has become increasingly polarised. More countries are experiencing declining levels of trust in mainstream political parties and leaders, and succumbing to "culture wars" of the sort that have long characterised the US. Western Europe is plagued by low levels of trust in government and is polarised around the issue of immigration. Many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are also exhibiting increased political polarisation. Rising levels of violent crime have also encouraged voters to accept an erosion of democratic norms and civil liberties in return for security at the hands of authoritarian-leaning leaders. In El Salvador, the president, Nayib Bukele, leveraged his success in reducing crime to increase his authoritarian grip on power and erode civil liberties. Ecuador's score declined sharply as a crime wave related to organised crime led to the assassination of politicians during the 2023 presidential election, putting political stability and democracy at grave risk.

Democratic backsliding in Asia and Australasia stems from other sources, although violent conflict and political crises have played a role in undermining public trust in political institutions, as developments in Afghanistan, Myanmar and Sri Lanka attest. The region registered a decline in its average index score in 2023, to 5.41, a new low since the launch of the index in 2006. Of the 28 countries in the region, 15 recorded a decline in their score. In places such as Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan and Thailand the dominance of one political party or the outsized influence of the military are such that elections are far from being free, fair or competitive. Elsewhere, governments that have an incumbency advantage, having delivered economic growth and improved living standards, have taken advantage of strong public support to restrict media freedoms or minority rights. India is one such example.

Eastern Europe and Central Asia registered the mildest regression of any region in the world, despite the incidence of war and conflict, and now sits only marginally below Asia and Australasia based on its average score.. Montenegro, on the path to EU accession, registered the biggest improvement in the region. Meanwhile, many countries in the lowest-scoring regions in the world--Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa-are struggling to make any progress in democratisation as they face a seemingly inexorable increase in the incidence of coups, conflict and war.

EIU's Democracy Index 2023 is available free of charge at eiu.com/democracy-index

About EIU
EIU is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, a leading source of international business and world affairs information. It provides accurate and impartial intelligence for companies, government agencies, financial institutions and academic organisations around the globe, inspiring business leaders to act with confidence since 1946. EIU products include a Country Analysis service, providing political and economic analysis for nearly 200 countries, and a portfolio of subscription-based data and forecasting services. More information is available at eiu.com

EIU is headquartered in London, UK, with offices in more than 40 cities and a network of about 750 country experts and analysts worldwide. It operates independently as the business-to-business arm of The Economist Group, the leading source of analysis on international business and world affairs.

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