Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Continues to Surprise

ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. may be a threat to Joe Biden, which seems to be the conventional wisdom. But recent polls show that the conventional wisdom is wrong - Kennedy hurts Donald Trump more than Joe Biden.

AS IF TRUMP DOESN'T HAVE ENOUGH PROBLEMS, new polls show he's the clear victim as Kennedy continues to surprise in the polls. Not only does Kennedy hurt Trump - the former president, stuck in a long trial, is slipping in one-on-one polls against Biden.

TRUMP BARELY WINS against Biden in a new NBC poll by 46% to 44% - down from a 5 point lead this winter - but when Kennedy is added to the mix, Biden tops Trump at 39% to 37%, followed by Kennedy at 13%, Jill Stein at 3% and Cornel West at 2%, the NBC News poll found.

IN THE LATEST REAL CLEAR POLITICS national poll, Trump's edge over Biden nationally slipped to 0.4 percentage points, although Trump leads in most of the key battleground states - with the exception of Pennsylvania, where Biden has a razor-thin margin.

THE LATEST POLL TO RAISE EYEBROWS IN WASHINGTON came yesterday from Marist College. It shows Biden at 51 percent and Trump at 48 percent in a national head-to-head contest. But when you factor in third-party candidates - Kennedy, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West - Biden's lead goes to five percentage points, larger than the poll's 3.6-point margin of error.

POLITICAL ANALYSTS ARE BEGINNING TO SUSPECT THAT Kennedy's image among right-leaning voters is superior to his image among left-leaning ones. While Republicans like him by 40 percent to 15 percent - a plus-25 split - Democrats dislike him by 53-16 - a negative-37 split.

WE HAVE THOUGHT FOR WEEKS that Kennedy's numbers would slip, but they haven't yet, despite a withering attack from his own family. Is it possible that Kennedy attracts independents who like his views on issues like the safety of vaccines? More ominously for Trump, is the daily drumbeat from his trials beginning to erode his support among independents?

IN 1992, ROSS PEROT WON 19% of the vote, which probably threw the election to Bill Clinton, who won with 43%. It's too early to reach any similar conclusions for this year, but Kennedy has the potential to scramble the race in several states. Will the ultimate winner capture a majority of the votes nationwide? That's highly unlikely.

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