05/09/2024 | News release | Distributed by Public on 05/08/2024 22:09
The RBA offers the most recent forecast for the Australian economy in its May Statement on Monetary Policy. Over the next two years it expects:
RBA forecasts for the Australian economy (May 2024)
% change over the year | Dec 2023 | Jun 2024 | Dec 2024 | Jun 2025 | Dec 2025 | Jun 2026 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross domestic product (GDP) | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
Household consumption | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
Dwelling investment | -3.1 | -3.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
Business investment | 8.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
Public demand | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
Gross national expenditure | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
Imports | 3.5 | 1.1 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
Exports | 4.2 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.5 |
Terms of trade | -3.9 | -3.3 | -4.1 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.3 |
Real household disposable income | 0.3 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
Unemployment rate (qtr average, %) | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
Employment | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
Average wage rates (WPI) | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 |
Trimmed mean inflation (CPI) | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
Headline inflation (CPI) | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.6 |