Profile of Australia's population

Net overseas migration

Net overseas migration (see glossary) was the main driver of Australia's population growth in the years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Net overseas migration is the component of population change that has been most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The introduction of international border restrictions in early 2020 lowered net overseas migration to -85,000 persons in 2020-21, the first recorded net outflow since the Second World War. Following the easing of international border restrictions from late 2021, net overseas migration grew to 204,000 persons in 2021-22 to return to being the main driver of population growth, before further increasing to 528,000 persons in 2022-23. Much of the higher net overseas migration reflects a catch-up from the pandemic, as well as a surge in global demand for international study and a strong domestic labour market (Centre for Population 2023).

Natural increase

Since the late 2000s, natural increase has added on average around 150,000 people a year to the Australian population, although this has become smaller as a proportion of the population over time. Over the past 30 years, the total fertility rate has fallen from 1.86 babies per woman in 1992-93 to 1.58 in 2022-23, remaining below the replacement rate (see glossary) of 2.1 since the mid-1970s (ABS 2019, 2024b). At the same time, life expectancies at birth have increased and are among the highest in the world. Despite improving life expectancy (see glossary), the number of deaths has grown faster than births in recent years, reflecting Australia's ageing population.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Australia's fertility appears to have been relatively short-lived, with a small drop and subsequent rebound in births in 2021. This suggests that people adapted to the uncertainty of the pandemic and quickly caught-up on delayed childbearing plans (Gray et al. 2022).

Over the year to June 2023, there were 296,000 births, a decrease of 4.1 per cent from the previous year (309,000), and below the number of births in the prior to the pandemic in 2018-19 (305,000 births) (ABS 2024b).

Compared with many other advanced economies, Australia experienced low mortality during the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as infection rates increased from 2022, deaths from both COVID-19 and other causes increased. In 2022, deaths (191,000) were 11.7% higher than expected. This was a total 19,900 excess deaths in 2022 (or, 11,560 excess deaths after accounting for deaths above usual variation). During the first eight months of 2023, excess mortality continued but eased to 6.1%. COVID-19 remains a significant contributor to excess mortality, with deaths from or with COVID-19 accounting for around two-thirds of excess deaths since the start of 2022 (ABS 2023c).

Net interstate migration

Australia has high rates of internal migration compared to other countries, although this rate has declined from peaks in the 1980s and 1990s (ABS 2018).

The COVID-19 pandemic reduced net internal migration across Australia as state and territory governments temporarily restricted movements in some cities, regions and across state borders. There was an 11.6% drop in the number of interstate moves from 2018-19 (476,000) to 2019-20 (421,000). There was a further fall to 366,000 in the year to June 2021. Recorded interstate moves increased in the year to June 2022 (484,000), but it is unlikely this many moves actually occurred (for more information, see National, state and territory population methodology). Interstate moves still remain below pre-pandemic levels, with 372,000 interstate moves recorded in the year to June 2023 (ABS 2024b).

Australia's population in a global context

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia's population growth rate was higher than that of most other advanced countries, largely as a result of net overseas migration. Population growth decreased to 0.1% in 2021 due to a net outflow of migrants before increasing to 1.3% in 2022, which was above the OECD average for OECD countries (Figure 3). For other countries (not OECD members), China experienced no population growth (0.0%) while India (0.7%) and Indonesia (0.6%) experienced lower growth.

Figure 3: Population growth by country, 1992 to 2022

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