India’s power agency sees coal-fired capacity rising

India will need to increase its coal-fired power generation capacity to 259.6GW by the April 2023-March 2032 fiscal year, according to the country's national electricity plan (NEP).

The NEP, announced by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), reported on 31 May that India will need to raise its current coal-fired capacity of 211.9GW to 259.6GW in 2031-32, to meet the country's projected peak electricity demand of 2473.8TWh. The CEA also sees coal-fired capacity rising to 235.1GW by 2026-27, boosting fossil fuel-based power generation in the coming years.

The average plant load factor (PLF) - which is the capacity utilisation of a thermal power unit - is projected to be around 58.4pc of 235.1GW in 2026-27 with a domestic coal requirement of 866.4mn t, while the PLF for 2031-32 is seen at 58.7pc of 259.6GW with a domestic coal requirement of 1.0258bn t and an imported coal requirement of 28.9mn t.

The government is likely to retire a total of 2.12GW of coal-fired power plants over 2022-32, official documents show. But a total of 26.9GW coal-based capacity will be built by 2032.

The latest NEP claimed that peak electricity demand in India will rise to 277.2GW in 2026-27, before rising to 335GW in 2029-30, and ultimately rising to 366GW in 2031-32.

India's projected peak power demand also includes factoring in the increased adoption of electric vehicles (EV) on Indian roads, installation of solar roof tops, production of green hydrogen, and the supply of electricity to all households via the Saubhagya scheme.

The government plans for EVs to account for 30pc of the country's automotive sales by 2030, rooftop solar capacity to reach 40GW by March 2026, and reach 5mn t/yr of green hydrogen production by 2030.

The NEP also envisages the share of non-fossil-based capacity to increase to 57.4pc by the end of 2026-27, wherein the share of renewable-based capacity will increase to 336.6GW and further to 596.3GW by 2031-32. The government aims to achieve 500GW of installed renewable capacity by 2030.

The NEP expects battery energy storage capacity (BESS) to rise exponentially to 47.24GW by 2031-32. India's first BESS project was commissioned earlier this year by private-sector firm India Grid Trust at Dhule in Maharashtra.

By Rituparna Ghosh

India's power generation capacity	(GW)
Resource	Existing capacity	Likely installed capacity in 2026-2027	Likely installed capacity in 2031-2032
Coal	211.9	235.1	259.6
Solar PV	66.8	185.6	364.6
Hydro	42.1	52.5	62.2
Small hydro	4.9	5.2	5.5
PSP	4.7	7.5	26.7
Wind	42.6	72.9	121.9
Biomass	10.8	13.0	15.5
Nuclear	6.8	13.1	19.7
Gas	24.8	24.8	24.8
BESS	--	8.7	47.2
Total	415.4	618.3	947.7
Source: Central Electricity Authority
*Indian financial year runs from April to March

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