01/10/2025 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 01/10/2025 05:32
The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we shed light on the election of Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon.
During a time of significant power shifts in the Middle East, Lebanon finally succeeded in appointing the new President of the Republic on 9 January 2024. Joseph Aoun, the chief of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), was elected president in two rounds, securing an absolute majority of votes. This election ends the prolonged power vacuumthat has paralysed Lebanon's political landscape since former President Michel Aoun's mandate terminated in the end of October 2022. Since then, political parties had struggled to reach a consensus on his successor - who, under Lebanon's confessional representation system, must be a Maronite Christian - leading to the failure of 13 parliamentary sessions to elect a president. However, this time, the weakening of Hezbollah (one of the main opponents of Aoun's appointment) due to its war with Israel, combined with the fall of Bashar Al Assad in Syria (a strong supporter of Sleiman Frangieh, the rival of Aoun), created the conditions for compromise, allowing Aoun to be elected. Aoun is a well-known name in the Lebanese political scene, having been the leading candidate for Lebanon's presidency in recent years - although never supported by a particular party in previous polls, - enjoying good domestic and international support. His eight-year leadership of the army, during a period of severe economic and socio-political crises, has earned him significant respect and admiration, both within the international community and among the Lebanese people. The dissolution of this political impasse opens the door to other challenging domestic and international questions. The new President will have to navigate the intricated Lebanese political system to appoint a new government, a task that will be critical, and he will need to ensure Lebanon's safety and stability from regional threats - an endeavour that will prove to be a daunting.
Experts from the ISPI network discuss the election of Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon.
"In recent years, Joseph Aoun has been the leading candidate for the presidency in Lebanon. As head of the armed forces, he enjoys good domestic support and is respected both regionally and internationally. This raises a question: why has Aoun not been elected earlier? The answer lies in Lebanon's intricate political processes, which require a delicate balance of internal and external consensus. To gain access to the Baabda Palace, a candidate must navigate three layers of negotiation. First, an intra-Christian negotiation is necessary. As the presidency is traditionally reserved for a Maronite Christian, it is unthinkable to elect a president without the support of one of the major Christian parties, which see the presidency as their highest political representation. Second, a broader intra-Lebanese consensus is required, involving all major political and sectarian factions to ensure confessional balance. Third, international alignment is crucial, as Lebanon's presidency is subject to the approval of regional and global actors with interests in the country. For this reason, the guiding principle remains consensus, which was facilitated not only by the weakening of Hezbollah but also by the fall of Assad in Syria, given Damascus' long interference in Lebanese political dynamics."
Luigi Toninelli, MENA centre, ISPI
"The new President will face four key challenges: implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, addressing Hezbollah's weapons, driving financial and economic recovery, and managing relations with the emerging regime in Syria. Following the presidential election, Members of Parliament will select a new Prime Minister and vote in a government. The President will exert influence on the executive branch through ministerial appointments, political nominations, foreign policy, and by chairing certain government meetings. On the issue of Resolution 1701, the President must ensure Lebanon's orderly implementation of its provisions, particularly under U.S. oversight and amid the persistent threat of renewed conflict. In parallel, the President will be instrumental in securing financial support for the reconstruction of regions devastated by conflict. Hezbollah's arsenal, while not an immediate crisis, will remain a pressing issue. The new President is likely to resume former President Michel Sleiman's efforts to forge a comprehensive national defense strategy, aiming to restore the state's monopoly over the use of force and curtail decades of Iranian and Syrian influence. Economic and financial recovery will also demand urgent attention, as previous governments have delayed necessary but difficult reforms. The President must build political consensus to drive these reforms forward and stabilize Lebanon's economy. Finally, the rise of a new Islamist regime in Syria presents a significant geopolitical challenge. The President will need to carefully navigate this evolving dynamic to safeguard Lebanon's security and national interests."
Mohanad Hage Ali, Deputy Director for Research, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
"External pressure has pushed Lebanon's leaders to put aside their bickering temporarily and elect a new president, the army commander Joseph Aoun. For well over two years, Lebanese politicians justified their intransigence by arguing over whether the next head of state should confront Hezbollah's armed 'resistance' or not. Bitter personal rivalries also cemented the impasse. Now, the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire has reignited international interest in ending the presidential vacuum. Lebanon needs a new president to oversee the ceasefire deal's implementation and post-war reconstruction, on top of passing reforms to tackle the country's longstanding economic crisis. Even amidst such urgent priorities, Lebanon's elites could waste more time squabbling over forming a new government: the next, crucial step after electing a president."
David Wood, Senior Analyst, International Crisis Group
"In Lebanon, the position of President is essentially one of protocol and representation. However, despite limited executive room for manoeuvre, two of their prerogatives are important to Hezbollah. The President is Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces (army and security forces). They also have veto power overdraft legislation. For Hezbollah, whose role within Lebanese institutions remains to forge alliances with other political parties to defend the interests of the 'Islamic Resistance in Lebanon' (IRL, the armed organisation to which Hezbollah is attached), it is important that the President is not radically hostile to the latter's cause. Hezbollah also needs inter-sectarian stability and appeasement. Hence, the President should not be one with a discourse that some communities could find provocative or offensive. In this regard, Joseph Aoun seems to show a profile that Hezbollah could work with."
Aurélie Daher, Associate Professor, Dauphine Université Paris
"Since Lebanese independence, the country's presidential elections have never been solely a domestic competition but also a regional and international one. Given Lebanon's fragmented social and sectarian nature, almost every sectarian leader has an international patron, with the country considered a proxy arena for geopolitical rivalries. Lebanese presidential elections, therefore, often reflect the prevailing regional and global balance of power - for instance, the election of Fouad Chehab in 1958 came after a US-Egyptian agreement. However, international stakeholders can also overplay their hand: the election and subsequent assassination of President-elect Bachir Gemayel in 1982 showed what can happen when a foreign power attempts to bulldoze through its agenda unilaterally. External actors use both carrots and sticks to secure parliamentary votes for their preferred presidential candidate. Presidential elections are commonly known as 'lottery season' for MPs, many of whom receive cash or financial rewards for their votes. Alternatively, foreign powers will threaten sanctions against MPs' private businesses abroad to coerce compliance."
Adam Chamseddine, Senior Policy Advisor, Badil | The Alternative Policy Institute
"While the new President's immediate focus will be Lebanon's southern border with Israel, in the medium-term Lebanon's strategic interests lie east in the country's relations with Syria. This vital almost existential relationship has been fraught by decades of conflict and political interference including occupation and assassinations. With the ouster of Assad, the weakening of Iran's influence, and the arrival of new rulers in Damascus keen on turning the page, Lebanon and Syria may have a historic opportunity to build mutually beneficial relations based on sovereignty and shared interests. Ahmad al-Sharaa's made encouraging signs recently and so did President Aoun in his inaugural oath. The list of immediate issues is clear: situation of Syrian refugees, fate of Lebanon's disappeared, and delineation of borders. But if these issues are handled responsibly, the two countries can quickly move to forward-looking matters like economic complementarity and energy collaboration leading to a more stable and prosperous levant."
Nadim Houry, Executive Director, Arab Reform Initiative