Key Australian industry indicators - April 2024

Inflation not falling fast enough

Inflation continued to fall in the first quarter of 2024, with consumer price growth at 3.6% p.a., and producer prices growing by 4.3% p.a.

However, these inflation figures exceeded market expectations of a slower fall, with inflation rising 1.0% in the first quarter of the year.

They indicate that the "last mile" of inflation will prove especially stubborn and threaten official forecasts for CPI to return to target by end-2025.

Cuts to interest rates are likely to be delayed into late 2024 at the earliest, depending on the strength of the labour market.