08/04/2021 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 08/04/2021 09:56
Reported and forecasted new and total COVID-19 cases as of August 2, 2021.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New Cases
National Forecasts
[Link]Download national forecast data excel icon [XLS - 23 KB]
State & County Forecasts
State-level and county-level forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 cases for the next 4 weeks by jurisdiction. Each forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of COVID-19 cases between jurisdictions. To aid in comparisons between jurisdictions, the ensemble plot for each location has a second axis (in grey) that shows the expected number of cases per 100,000 people. Only forecasts meeting a set of ensemble inclusion criteria are shown; further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble/external icon . Plots of the state-level and county-level ensemble forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below.
Download forecasts for states and territories and for counties pdf icon [PDF - 9 MB]
Download all forecast data excel icon [CSV - 10 MB]
Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon .
Forecast Inclusion and Assumptions
The teams with forecasts included in the ensembles are displayed below. Forecasts are included when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described here: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub#ensemble-modelexternal icon .
The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Additional individual model details are available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon
Intervention assumptions fall into multiple categories:
1The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.