IOC enhances research on climate change impacts on phytoplankton

The IOC expert group on Climate Change and Global Trends of Phytoplankton in the Oceans (TrendsPO) originally focused on the comparative analysis and synthesis of long time series phytoplankton datasets with the aim to develop a more comprehensive understanding of underlying processes and pressures causing ecological change. The call to deliver new, transformative ocean science from the United Nations Decade for Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030, the Ocean Decade) now requires a more comprehensive research on phytoplankton dynamics. TrendsPO will incorporate new datasets compiled by the wider scientific community and link results of this more complete analysis of datasets with other large-scale, cross-system monitoring efforts of other IOC working groups, including the Ocean Biodiversity Information System (OBIS), the IOC-SCOR GlobalHAB and the GOOS Bio-Eco Expert Panel. The main objectives of TrendsPO will be to:

1. Understand the phytoplankton responses to global climate change through analysis of existing time series datasets.
2. Predict when and where rates of phytoplankton change are most extensive in terms of temporal and spatial scales of change under increased multiple stressors (anthropogenic activities, ocean acidification, climate change and their interactions).

Specifically, TrendsPO will:

• continue to work on representative phytoplankton datasets in order to develop a more comprehensive scientific understanding of underlying processes and pressures causing ecological change;

• move past the original focus of the working group to better understand the connectivity of phytoplankton with environmental changes through interactions with other IOC sponsored programs and groups;

• engage with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to examine phytoplankton variability in the ocean and coastal ecosystems under various climate change scenarios;

• train young career scientists under the mentorship of the Group's senior scientists.

TrendsPO is also set to broaden its scope to include the continental shelf, the open oceans, as well as the estuarine and upstream freshwater ecosystems. These are critical areas where the impacts of terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic change, along with human activities are most intense and intersect, leading to changes that multiply across local and global scales. Additionally, the group will explore land-sea interactions through long time-series data. This effort will complement the ongoing activities of GlobalHAB and the GOOS Bio-Eco Panel, and align with UN Ocean Decade Programmes.

The datasets that are needed for these analyses are scattered worldwide, having been gathered by a diverse range of independent researchers, agencies, and countries. However, a significant portion of this data is already accessible, enabling the group to immediately commence work. In collaboration with GOOS Bio-Eco Panel, the group will set priorities and formulate recommendations for future monitoring initiatives for this EOV and for a more thorough re-examination of existing data sets.

TrendsPO plans to operate through correspondence, virtual meetings, as well as in-person workshops from 2024 to 2027. Anticipated outputs include:

• Pilot studies. Data analyses (with GlobalHAB, GOOS Bio-Eco Panel, RS and modelling community);

• Identification of new research questions and new studies;

• A journal special issue;

• A training workshop;

• Identification of synthesis studies;

• Formulation of opinion pieces;

• Recommendations on future global monitoring of phytoplankton.

For further information, contact Jacob Carstensen ([email protected]), Jie Xu ([email protected]), Peter Thompson ([email protected]).

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