A Year-End Surprise — Immigration Reform May Move

IT'S BEEM CLEAR FOR THE PAST FEW YEARS that there's an acute labor shortage, which has led to a major opinion shift: immigration reform has gained support. Donald Trump made opposition to immigration a cornerstone of his 2016 election; now there's a call for more immigration.

THE TIGHT LABOR MARKET has forced employers to boost salaries and offer sign-up bonuses to new workers, and it has led to generous new labor contracts - with firms passing along price hikes to their customers in an attempt to pay for the higher compensation.

THIS HAS WORRIED OFFICIALS at the Federal Reserve, who acknowledge that labor compensation is is perhaps the most intractable form of inflation. Gasoline prices can go up or down; labor costs seemingly just rise, especially with unemployment still below 4%.

A LAST-MINUTE IMMIGRATION SURPRISE: Congress is racing to finish a year's worth of business in less than a month, but a bipartisan compromise has emerged that would reform the country's immigration laws.

WASHINGTON IS BUZZING THIS WEEK about a potential blockbuster deal between North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis and maverick Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. The deal would establish a path to citizenship for about 2 million so-called Dreamers, who illegally entered the country as children.

THE PROPOSED COMPROMISE also would streamline the asylum process and - importantly - would spend much more money on border security, with the hiring of more border agents and higher salaries for all agents.

THE DEAL COULD FALL APART if funding for a border wall is included,
but a wall could soften Republican opposition. A major obstacle is time - Congress plans to adjourn a few days before Christmas, probably after passing a massive omnibus spending bill that could include everything but the kitchen sink.

WE GIVE THIS IMMIGRATION PROPOSAL A 40% CHANCE OF ENACTMENT just before Christmas Eve, but a more likely scenario is passage of a bill in 2023. At the least, there's now a realization that more workers - and immigrants - are needed.

COULD JOE BIDEN get an immigration deal by spring? That's not out of the question, if he's willing to crack down on border security. Biden surely must know that an immigration deal - regardless of its specific details - would cement his legacy of getting things done.

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