Fitch rating agency affirmed Poland’s credit rating

• On 14 March 2025 rating agency Fitch announced a decision about keeping Poland's credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency and A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities in local currency.
• Rating's outlook remained at a stable level.

Poland's rating is supported by a large, diversified and resilient economy, track record of fairly sound macroeconomic policies anchored by EU membership, solid external finances and a higher and more stable government revenue base than peers. These are balanced against wider fiscal deficits, lower (albeit rising) income levels and weaker governance indicators.

For 2024, Fitch estimates that the general government deficit rose to 6.2% of GDP (from 5.3% in 2023). Military expenditure increased from 2% of GDP in 2021 to around 4% in 2024, the highest level in Europe, according to NATO data.

Fitch forecast a deficit reduction to 5.0% by 2026 ('A' median 2.6%) and a decrease to 3.7% by 2028.

Agency forecast government debt/GDP to stabilize at 64% in 2028 and follow a gradual downward trajectory thereafter.

Fitch forecasts growth of 3.1% in both 2025 and 2026 (revised down from 3.4% and 3.2%, respectively) as the impact of US tariffs on the Eurozone growth outlook will be largely mitigated by domestic consumption, and EU funds.

Rating prospects

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade are the following: fiscal consolidation over the medium term that leads to a firm decline in the government debt/GDP ratio; significant improvement in governability, reflecting a sustained easing of political polarisation and/ or improvements in the policy framework and rule of law; sustained higher GDP growth, leading to faster income convergence towards 'A' category median, supported by policies that do not lead to macroeconomic, fiscal or external imbalances.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade are:

failure to consolidate public finances that reduces confidence in the government's ability to stabilize public debt over the medium-term at a level close to the peers; materially lower medium-term growth prospects, for example due to an erosion in competitiveness or protracted economic weakness in trading partners.