Inflation amounts to 3.37%

Consumer price index of April 2024

• Inflation went up from 3.18% to 3.37% in April.
• The consumer price index this month decreases by 0.63 points or 0.48%.
• Inflation based on the health index has increased from 3.09% to 3.28%.
• The smoothed health index stands at 128.32 points in April. The central index for public service and social benefits, set at 128.11 points, was therefore exceeded.
• Inflation for food products (including alcoholic beverages) has decreased for the 13th month in a row and stands at 0.25% this month, compared to 3.21% in March. The contribution of food products to inflation currently amounts to 0.06 percentage points.
• Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, has decreased for the 11th month in a row and stands at 3.26% in April, compared to 3.85% in March.
• The most significant price increases in April concerned motor fuels, hotel rooms and restaurants and cafés. However, dairy products, fruit, meat, bread and cereals, clothes, travels abroad and city trips, electricity, fish and seafood, products for pets and holiday villages had a decreasing effect on the index.

Inflation stands at 3.37% in April compared to 3.18% in March and 3.20% in February. Inflation based on the health index amounts to 3.28% this month compared to 3.09% in March and 3.22% in February. Inflation without energy has decreased to 2.87% from 3.86% in March and 5.04% in February. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, was running at 3.26% in April, compared to 3.85% in March and 4.25% in February.

Comment on inflation

With regard to energy, we have seen for the first time since March 2023 a positive inflation. It now stands at 9.19%, compared to -1.61% last month and -5.34% in February. For electricity, inflation is currently at 1.9% compared to -14.9% last month. For natural gas, it went from 29.0% last month to 87.5% this month. Compared to the previous month, prices for natural gas decreased by 2.3% and those for electricity by 2.4%. The increase in inflation in recent months is the result of the extinction of the impact of the basic package for electricity and natural gas. In March, the last effect of the basic package disappeared from the index. The disappearance of the basic package will have an increasing effect on inflation until March 2025. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have declined by 6.1% over a year. Motor fuels cost 3.4% more than in April last year and increased by 3.2% this month compared to the previous month.

Inflation for services has declined to 4.93% from 5.04%. Inflation for rents has edged down to 5.43% from 5.62%. Inflation for food products (including alcoholic beverages) stands at 0.25% this month, compared to 3.21% last month. This inflation has increased sharply since early 2022 and reached a peak at 17.02% in March 2023. Since then, it has gradually decreased to the level of 0.25% in April 2024.

Energy inflation goes from -1.61% in March to 9.19% in April and accounts for 0.77 percentage points to total inflation. Food, with an inflation rate of 0.25%, accounts for 0.06 percentage points.

The price of natural gas has decreased by 2.3% in April compared to the previous month. Prices for electricity have gone down by 2.4% on average this month.

Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to April last year are:

Some products and services that fell sharply in price compared to April last year are:

The main group with the largest^[i] on inflation in April was "Housing, water and energy" with an effect on inflation of 0.75 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for "Food and non-alcoholic beverages" with -0.83 percentage points.

The main group with the ^[ii] to inflation is "Housing, water and energy" with 1.17 percentage points. The smallest contribution to inflation was made by the group "Food and non-alcoholic beverages", with -0.03 percentage points.

The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 4.9% in April 2024.

Comment on the level of the indices

The consumer price index has decreased by 0.63 points or 0.48% in April 2024 and now amounts to 131.10 points, compared to 131.73 points in March 2024 (2013=100). The health index fell by 0.90 points to 130.85 points in April, compared to 131.75 points in March. The smoothed health index stands at 128.32 points in April. The central index for public service and social benefits, set at 128.11 points, was therefore exceeded. This means that social security benefits and pensions will be raised by 2% in May. Wages in the public sector will be indexed by 2% in June. The last time the central index was exceeded was in October 2023. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 130.67 points.

The most significant price increases in April concerned motor fuels, hotel rooms and restaurants and cafés. However, dairy products, fruit, meat, bread and cereals, clothes, travels abroad and city trips, electricity, fish and seafood, products for pets and holiday villages had a decreasing effect on the index.

The most important trends this month are:

Prices for motor fuels have gone up by 3.2% on average this month. Hotel rooms went up by 6.8% this month. Prices in restaurants and cafés increased on average by 0.6%.

Dairy products have become on average 4.0% less expensive this month. Fruit and meat were 5.7% and 1.6% cheaper, respectively. Prices for bread and cereals have fallen by 1.7% on average. Clothes have cost on average 1.3% less this month. Travels abroad and city trips became on average 2.2% less expensive. The price of electricity decreased by 2.4% on average. Fish and seafood as well as products for pets were on average 4.0% and 4.7% cheaper, respectively. Prices for holiday villages decreased on average by 5.6%.

^[i] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).

^[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.

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