12/06/2023 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 12/06/2023 10:53
In his final national forecast of the year, Sean Snaith pulls out his favorite playlist to predict what's next for the U.S. economy. Top hits (and an accompanying Spotify playlist) include a recession that's "slipping, slipping, slipping into the future" and Beastie Boys-like "slow and low" growth next year.
What's more, Snaith, director of UCF's Institute for Economic Forecasting, says that fears of a recession happening are consistent with past economic downturns. In his latest forecast released today, he references the more than 40% of economists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia who predict a decline in real GDP during the first quarter of 2024.
"Two-plus years of falling real income have consumers walking a financial tightrope, and the safety net of a still-tight labor market may be the only thing between a slip-up and a plunge into a recession," Snaith says. "The anxiety of watching this high-wire act will be a persistent companion over the next year."
The U.S. economy is entering a period of slower growth that could last for two years, Snaith says, citing the unintended consequence of an over-reliance on pandemic-era fiscal stimulus and extremely loose monetary policy.
"Multi-trillion-dollar deficits fueled a spending frenzy in an environment of very low interest rates that continued for nearly three years," Snaith adds. "That spending was the spark that ignited inflation and ultimately sowed the seeds of the impending slowdown."
Listen to Snaith's full forecast playlist here.
See other highlights from his four-year quarterly U.S. forecast below:
Snaith is a nationally recognized economist in the field of economics, forecasting, analysis and market sizing. He has been recognized by Bloomberg News as one of the country's most accurate economic forecasters and has served as a consultant for both local governments and multi-national corporations. Before joining UCF's College of Business, Snaith held faculty positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. More of Snaith's work is available on the Institute for Economic Forecasting site.