Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024 is Projected to Rise 3.4% Year-Over-Year

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of March 2024 is 3.4%.

If 3.4% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the highest year-over-year increase since December 2023 (also 3.4%).

Last month (February 2024), the consumer price index increased by 3.2% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 3.1%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 5 months, matched the median estimate in 1 month, and fallen short of the median estimate in 6 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 53% of the time, matched the median estimate 15% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 32% of the time.

The median estimate of 3.4% is based on 11 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 3.39% to a high of 3.50%, for a spread of 11 bps. This spread is lower than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 50 bps and lower than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the low and high estimate 49 bps.

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.7%.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for March tomorrow (April 10).

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