What Landing? CFOs' outlook for the economy improves in first quarter of 2024

Financial decision-makers notably increased their expectations for real GDP growth in 2024, according to the results of The CFO Survey, a collaboration of Duke University's Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. In the survey, which closed on March 8, CFOs also note an increase in labor-replacing automation.

Alongside stronger GDP growth expectations, using a scale from 0 to 100 to rate their optimism about the overall U.S. economy, CFO optimism increased to 61, its highest level since 2021Q2. The pick-up in overall optimism is widespread, cutting across firm size and industry.

"CFOs have improved their economic outlook amid stronger realized growth in the U.S. economy," said Atlanta Fed economist Brent Meyer. "Firms still face many challenges, including a tight labor market and persistent pricing pressures, but there is less concern over a downturn in economic growth compared to previous quarters."

CFO optimism about their own firm's financial prospects, which stands at a level of 69, increased slightly from last quarter. At the same time, over half of firms expect their price growth in 2024 to remain above pre-COVID norms, suggesting that for many firms, pricing pressures remain above what they consider normal.

The business spending picture has improved from historically low levels. The share of firms that increased spending (excluding capital expenditures) in the past three months rose to 47 percent, an increase of 4 percentage points from last quarter's survey, though this remains far lower than the 66 percent that noted increased spending in a survey conducted this time two years ago. For capital expenditures, the share of firms planning investments also edged higher since last quarter.

In a special question, more than half of respondent firms report implementing software, equipment and/or other technology to automate tasks previously completed by employees. Among those firms that automated tasks over the last 12 months, close to 40 percent noted that automation caused them to either slow the rate of hiring new employees, decline to fill open positions or lay off employees.

The CFO Survey is issued by Duke University's Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. The latest survey, as well as historical data and commentary, can be found at www.cfosurvey.org. Sign up to receive email notifications when new results are posted.

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