The One Easy Election Call

THE RACE FOR PRESIDENT is very close, and the House could go either way. But there's one easy call - the Senate, now narrowly controlled by Democrats, is very likely to flip to the GOP. We give this a 70% chance of happening.

INCREDIBLY, THERE ARE NO SERIOUSLY VULNERABLE Republican seats; perhaps Ted Cruz in Texas or Rick Scott in Florida may have to break into a sweat, but they're clear favorites. All the other GOP seats are solid, so with the Democrats now clinging to a 51-49 majority, the bar is low for a Senate flip.

THE ACTION WILL BE CONFINED TO VULNERABLE DEMOCRATIC SEATS: Several look shaky, as follows: The West Virginia seat being vacated by Joe Manchin almost certainly will fall to GOP Gov. Jim Justice; Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is a slight underdog in Montana; Democrat Sherrod Brown trails in Ohio; and Jacky Rosen is in trouble in Nevada. The latter three are excellent campaigners, but Donald Trump is the favorite in all three states, providing some coat-tails.

REPUBLICANS HAVE OTHER PICKUP OPPORTUNITIES: The Arizona seat being vacated by Kyrsten Sinema is very close, with former Gov. Kari Lake in a tossup; Sen. Bob Casey is in a tough fight in Pennsylvania; there's an open Democratic seat in Michigan, and Democrat Tammy Baldwin is barely ahead in Wisconsin.

WHAT'S CHANGED IS THE LAST-MINUTE ENTRY by Larry Hogan in Maryland, who is seeking the seat being vacated by Democrat Ben Cardin. Hogan is a moderate Republican who's a media favorite and a popular ex-governor who is aggressively running away from Trump.

BASED ON THESE RACES, WE THINK THE REPUBLICANS will gain at least two or three seats while losing none of theirs - enough for them to take the Senate. So it's no wonder that there's an intense battle to become Senate Majority Leader, replacing Chuck Schumer, the New York liberal. (Sen. Mitch McConnell, 82, will not run again for a leadership role, and South Dakota Sen. John Thune is the early favorite to succeed him as Majority Leader.)

THE KEY FACTOR: Will this be a "wave" election or a cliffhanger? If Trump wins easily, the GOP could pick up a net of perhaps four or five Senate seats; if it's a nail-biter, perhaps the GOP may pick up only two or three. But the bottom line appears clear: the issue isn't whether the Republicans will capture the Senate, it's by how much.

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