Second forecasts of the accounts for agriculture 2023

The second estimates of the economic accounts for Belgian agriculture for the year 2023 confirm the increase in net value added (production value after deduction of costs and depreciation), but to a lesser extent (+29.5%) than the first estimates (+49.3%).

This difference can be explained by a smaller decrease in intermediate consumption (-7.1%, estimated at -8.6% in December) and a smaller increase in the value of the agricultural sector (+0.1%, estimated at +1.6% in December).

It should be noted that, as in 2022, the relative importance of costs in each sector must be taken into account, and consequently the trend may vary depending on the specialisation of farms.

Initial estimates underestimated the deterioration in the situation for cereal producers compared to 2022. The reason is the falling price. First estimated at 25.4%, the drop reaches 35.0% in these second forecasts. The increase in volumes estimated at 4.0% in the first forecasts reaches 5.2%, but is far from sufficient to offset the plummeting prices. In the end, the production value of cereals fell by 31.6%.

For industrial plant production, the negative volume effect has been revised downwards (-2.5% instead of the -7.5% initially forecast), while the positive price effect has remained more or less the same (+8.9% versus +8.6%).

It should be noted that the initial forecasts had underestimated the fall in the production value of fodder (-1.0%). This fall was then re-evaluated at 25.4%, following not only a re-evaluation of volumes (-0.6%) but above all of prices (-24.9%).

The increase in the value of potato production, estimated at 27.8% in December 2023, has been re-evaluated at 22.6%. Compared to the first estimate, the price increase has been revised downwards (+6.4% instead of +16.7%); the estimate of the increase in volumes has been revised upwards (+15.3% instead of +9.6%).

The value of animal production has changed very little compared to the initial estimates. The decrease in value compared to 2022 is confirmed (-0.8%).

These second forecasts also confirm the fall in the value of animal products (-13.9%) following the depreciation of milk price (-19.7%). Prices that are back to levels similar to those of 2021.

With an increase in milk production revalued at 3.3%, the value of milk production would fall by 17.1%, slightly under the 18.3% initially forecast.

For cattle production, the demand for processing combined with a fall in slaughterings in Belgium and elsewhere in Europe is supporting prices and has a positive impact on prices (+2.4%). The first estimates predicted a 0.4% fall in production; the second forecast a slight increase of 0.9%.

These second forecasts also confirm the contraction in production volumes in the pig industry, down by 9.9%, and the increase in producer prices of 30.4% (initially forecast), leading to an increase in production value of 17.5%, after a year 2022 which had severely impacted the sector's profitability.

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