Real Estate Board of New York Inc.
02/07/2025 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 02/07/2025 11:23
Commercial Sentiment Continues to Trend Positive in Latest Broker Confidence Report
Regulatory decisions, interest rates and inventory sour residential outlook
New York, NY - The Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY), the City's leading real estate trade association, today released its Real Estate Broker Confidence Index report for H2 2024. For the first time since Q1 2022, both the Current Confidence Index and Expectations Index for commercial brokers are in positive range. Both indexes have trended upward sinch Q1 2023. On the other hand, the residential Current Confidence Index and Expectations Index have been in decline since Q4 2023.
REBNY's biannual Real Estate Broker Confidence Index report is New York City's only broker confidence report -- it surveys residential and commercial brokerage members to measure their confidence in the real estate market across the five boroughs.
Looking at the numbers, the Commercial Current Confidence Index (CCI), which had been negative since Q2 2022, pushed into positive territory in H2 2024, jumping from -23.1 to 25.7 - the strongest since Q3 2021. The six-month outlook tracked in the expectations index jumped from 7.2 to 57.8. Respondents pointed to more certainty following federal elections, strong retail leasing, surging office visitations toward year's end and the approval of City of Yes as reasons for optimism.
In contrast, the uncertainty that emerged for residential brokers in the first half of the year intensified in the second half. The FARE Act and weaker than expected rate cuts weighed on negative sentiment. The Residential CCI dipped to -13.6, down from -6.6 in the first half of the year. Residential brokers were split on six-month expectations (EXI), with a 0.2 score, the lowest mark since Q3 2023.
"An uptick in return to office and approval of City of Yes have put commercial broker sentiment on an upward trajectory, while regulatory decisions and continued challenges around interest rates and lack of inventory have created more pessimism on the residential side" said REBNY Vice President of Market Data and Policy Keith DeCoster. "Looking forward, brokers are closely watching for the utilization of new residential development incentives on their respective markets, as there is some debate on expected outcomes."
The full report and other research from REBNY can be found here.
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ABOUT THE REAL ESTATE BOARD OF NEW YORK
The Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY) is the City's leading real estate trade association. Founded in 1896, REBNY represents commercial, residential, and institutional property owners, builders, managers, investors, brokers, and salespeople; banks, financial service companies, utilities, attorneys, architects, and contractors; corporations, co-partnerships, and individuals professionally interested in New York City real estate. REBNY conducts research on various civic matters including tax policy, city planning and zoning, rental conditions, land use policy, building codes, and other city, state, and federal legislation. REBNY regularly publishes market data, policy reports, and broker surveys. In addition, REBNY provides for its members: informational, technical, and technological resources; networking and charitable service opportunities; qualifying and continuing education courses; professional education programs, seminars, and designations; career-changing awards; legal advice; and a wide range of additional member benefits. For more information, please visit www.rebny.com.
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