09/23/2020 | Press release | Archived content
Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospitalizations
Ten state-level models predicting the number of new hospitalizations were submitted this week. These forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next four weeks in each state. Each state forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the number of new COVID-19 cases occurring per day in each state.
Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecasting Hubexternal icon .
These forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures and use different methods and data sets to estimate the number of new hospitalizations. Information about individual models is available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon .
Social distancing is incorporated into the forecasts in two different ways:
The rate of new hospitalizations is estimated using one of three approaches:
1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.