The Business Confidence Index increase 14 points in the First Quarter of 2021 (compared to quarter IV / 2020)

On April 15th 2021, Vietnam World Vest Base Financial Intelligence Services Company Limited (WVB FISL) announced the result of the survey about WVB Business Confidence Index in the Firth Quarter of 2021.

WVB FISH Ltd. conducts the survey quarterly. Main objects of the survey are companies which have the most well- known brand, the largest number of Total Assets, Total Revenues and Employees. Being performed from the of March 2021 to the middle of April 2021, the survey attracted 157 Companies which active in many fields in Vietnam, such as, construction, agriculture, forestry, electronics, trading, telecommunications, services… Nearly half of these businesses represented for Small and Medium enterprise sector.

According to the survey resulted, the business confidence index (BCI) in the First quarter of 2021 reached 116 points, increase 14 points Fourth quarter of 2020 (102 points). This index shows that Vietnamese businesses are more optimistic about the current economic situation. Most businesses believe that Vietnam's economy has been and will recover better. Besides, there are also many enterprises that believe that the current economy has many fluctuations and it is difficult to predict due to the volatility of the global economy, variant Covid -19 and risks in trade defenses and lawsuits in 2021.

Summary of investigation results of 6 components building Business Confidence Index (BCI) in the First quarter of 2021 as follows:

- On the general economic situation of Vietnam today: Only 40.13% of enterprises participating in the survey said that Vietnam's overall economy is now better than 12 months ago, 46.50% of enterprises said that economic conditions of Vietnam remained the same. 13.38% of enterprises said that economic conditions were somewhat worse than 12 months ago.

- Prediction of Vietnam's general an economic situation in the next 12 months: 43.95% of businesses believe that within the next 12 months, Vietnam's economy will be better, 50.32% of businesses rated it as the same, only 5.73% felt pessimistic about the economy in the coming time

Reviewing the hot news on the financial market in the first months of the year, it is impossible not to mention news about the current state of enterprises in the highly complicated Covid-19 season. According to Data from the Department of Business Registration (Ministry of Planning and Investment) shows, In the first two months of the year, more than 18,000 enterprises were newly established but 33,600 enterprises withdrew from the market. According to the survey, businesses that want to continue listening and reviewing market developments account for 6.67%; Looking for new business ideas as well as support policies of the State before deciding whether to close permanently or not accounts for 22.22%; As the epidemic has led to a shift in trend from industries heavily affected by the Covid pandemic to less risky businesses accounting for 46.67% and 24.44% of enterprises said that it was due to all of the above reasons leading to the situation of business suspending operation, going to dissolution or withdrawing from the market.

It can be seen that the complicated developments of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic had a two-way impact on the existence of businesses in the first months of 2021. But besides that, there are also newly established businesses, or businesses moving back to life. According to the evaluation of the Ministry of Planning and Investment, this is considered as a good signal showing people's confidence in the economic recovery and initial effectiveness of the new policies.

- Plans to use employees : 27.39% of businesses plan to increase their human resources; 66.24% is expected to stay the same and 6.37% of businesses will reduce the number of manpower in the coming time.

- Investment plans for fixed assets: 31.85% of businesses plan to increase their human resources; 64.33% is expected to stay the same and 3.82% of businesses will reduce the number of manpower in the coming time.

The ongoing pandemic situation has strongly motivated businesses and users to switch to online platforms to both satisfy daily necessities and for entertainment and interaction. Ecommerce industry predicts, this trend will continue to take place in the new normal period. The surveyed businesses believe that Digital Payment is the preferred method of transaction on ecommerce floors, accounting for 46.15%; Logistics Service, becoming more and more important as consumers expect a lot of delivery quality. There was a significant increase in demand for daily essential products and home appliances, a demonstration of 23.08% and 30.77% of businesses think that innovating in retail strategies to attract customers.

Along with advancements in technology, the increase in internet coverage and the trend of population rejuvenation with a young, tech-savvy generation and families with middle income or above, Expect eCommerce will play an integral role in the way we live, connect and do business.

- The belief in revenue growth: 69.43% of enterprises participating in the survey believe that their revenue will increase higher in the next 12 months; 27.39% of businesses think that their revenue will stay the same and 3.18% are concerned about their revenue decline in the future.

- The belief in profit growth: 67.52 % of enterprises believe that profits will increase next year; 29.30% of businesses think that profits will stay the same and 3.18% of businesses worry about the decline in profits in the next 12 months.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has forced businesses to adjust their culture and working habits from fixed administrative to remote work to be more flexible and easier to control the harm caused by the disease. This unintentionally creates a new employment trend for employees when entering the year 2021. It is a dynamic environment, flexible in terms of time, highlighting the quality of work and creativity. After nearly 1 year of implementation social distance and nearly 1 year of banning international flights, the trend of flexible workplaces is gradually established from medium to large sized enterprises. Workers can now flexibly work both at home and at the company according to the arrangement of the business, to ensure safety in the spread of disease.The flexibility of the workplace will help employees get comfortable working and help businesses stay competitive, cooperation and effectiveness in the face of epidemic changes. This is considered as a new working trend that breaks all traditions in the workplace in Vietnam and around the world. Although businesses face many difficulties and challenges in controlling the working hours and efficiency of employees, this trend is still receiving a great response from HR policies. According to the survey, 63.89% of enterprises surveyed want to return to the administrative working model after the season; 36.11% of the enterprises questioned do not want to return to the administrative working model.

No.	Components	Percentage (%)
1	Current condition of economy	126.75%
2	Prediction of economic condition	138.22%
3	Prediction of extent of change in labor	121.02%
4	Plans to invest in fixed assets	128.03%
5	Prediction of revenue growth	166.24%
6	Prediction of profit growth	164.33%

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