Regulation FD Disclosure - Form 8-K

Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure.

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During our earnings conference call on April 25, 2024, we highlighted the following outlook for the second quarter 2024.

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(Dollar amounts are approximations)

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For the second quarter of the year, we estimate our revenue to be in the range of $2.200 billion to $2.225 billion. We expect solid waste price plus volume growth of approximately 4.0%, from total price of 6.5% to 7% on core price of 7% to 7.5% and volume down 2.5% to 3%. Net income attributable to Waste Connections is estimated to be in the range of approximately $263 million to $268 million. Adjusted EBITDA is estimated to be in the range of approximately $715 million to $723 million, or 32.5% of revenue.

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Q2 2024 OUTLOOK

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATION SCHEDULE

(in thousands of U.S. dollars, except where noted)

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Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA:

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		​	​	​	​	​	​
​	Q2 2024 Outlook
​	Estimates	​	​
​	Low	​	High	​	Observation
Net income attributable to Waste Connections	$	263,000	​	$	268,000	​	​
Plus: Income tax provision	​	81,000	​	​	82,000	​	Approximately 23.5% effective rate
Plus: Interest expense, net of interest income	​	82,000	​	​	82,000	​	​
Plus: Depreciation and depletion	​	238,000	​	​	240,000	​	Approximately 10.8% of revenue
Plus: Amortization	​	44,000	​	​	44,000	​	Approximately 2.0% of revenue, or $0.13 per diluted share net of taxes
Plus: Closure and post-closure accretion	​	7,000	​	​	7,000	​	​
Adjusted EBITDA	$	715,000	​	$	723,000	​	Approximately 32.5% of revenue

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These estimates assume no significant change in underlying economic trends. They also exclude any impact from additional acquisitions that may close during the remainder of the year and expensing of transaction-related items during the period.

Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP financial measure, is provided supplementally because it is widely used by investors as a performance and valuation measure in the solid waste industry. Management uses adjusted EBITDA as one of the principal measures to evaluate and monitor the ongoing financial performance of our operations. We define adjusted EBITDA as net income attributable to Waste Connections, plus or minus net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests, plus income tax provision, plus interest expense, less interest income, plus depreciation and amortization expense, plus closure and post-closure accretion expense, plus or minus any loss or gain on impairments and other operating items, plus other expense, less other income. We further adjust this calculation to exclude the effects of other items management believes impact the ability to assess the operating performance of our business. This measure is not a substitute for, and should be used in conjunction with, GAAP financial measures. Other companies may calculate adjusted EBITDA differently.

The information furnished in Item 7.01 is not deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, is not subject to the liabilities of that section, and is not deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

Safe Harbor and Forward-Looking Information

This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 ("PSLRA"), including "forward-looking information" within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. These forward-looking statements are neither historical facts nor assurances of future performance and reflect Waste Connections' current beliefs and expectations regarding future events and operating

performance. These forward-looking statements are often identified by the words "may," "might," "believes," "thinks," "expects," "estimate," "continue," "intends" or other words of similar meaning. All of the forward-looking statements included in this document are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the PSLRA and applicable securities laws in Canada. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements in this document include, but are not limited to, statements about expected second quarter 2024 outlook for financial results. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ, possibly materially, from those indicated by the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, risk factors detailed from time to time in the Company's filings with the SEC and the securities commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this document. Waste Connections undertakes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements set forth in this document, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, unless required by applicable securities laws.

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