PYREX represents an opportunity to position the atmospheric physics and chemistry communities ahead of the curve in terms of what comes next as a result of pyroCb and strong pyroconvective storms. Far from the "niche" events they were once thought to be, the recent events of the past few years are harbingers of what is quickly becoming a "new normal". How black carbon evolves in pyroCb smoke plumes, how it impacts other chemical compounds, how it interacts with solar and infrared radiation- these are the questions of our times, and arguably some of the most important aerosol-climate questions of the past 30 years.
PyroCbs are a result of the thermal buoyancy within a smoke plume, driven by the heat of the fire relative to the surrounding air. It is this fundamental process that determines the vertical limit of a rising plume, where smoke arrives in the atmosphere above the fire, and thus the downwind trajectory and lifetime of the smoke.
In some regions, like the tropics, smoke-plume-rise is damped by relatively low buoyancy, and the plumes typically do not reach high altitudes. In western North America, however, and other regions favorable to pyroCb development, the potential for plume rise is clearly significant. Measurements of detailed fire-smoke-weather processes are necessary to better understand pyroCb activity and smoke transport to the stratosphere.
The ramifications for understanding these initial stages of plume-driven dynamics will have equally long-lasting impacts on how we model fires of all scales and their downwind impacts on air quality and radiation. Global and regional-scale modeling of smoke transport is a decades-long endeavor that has never fully represented these important physical mechanisms in operational predictions.
The ability to accurately model smoke plume rise, from the surface to the lower stratosphere, will lead to consequential gains in forecast skill, both in terms of long-range smoke transport, surface air quality, feedbacks via light absorption, and impacts on clouds and weather. PYREX is not only timely, but fundamental toward a better understanding of fire and smoke for scientific research and operational prediction.
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